Meet the new plan, same as the old plan.

Axios has a “scoop” on former president Donald Trump’s secret plan to attack Ron DeSantis. The intent is of course to keep the governor out of the race for the nomination, and failing that to damage the Florida governor in order to deny him the nomination.

The plan itself is quite a surprise. Not because there is anything in there that would shock you, but because there isn’t.

The Axios report may be a scoop, but it could have been written by a 10-year-old who has followed Trump’s “Truths.”

Trump plans to target “Ron DeSanctimonious,” as he delights in branding the governor, in five areas. They are:

1. DeSantis’ past support for changes to Social Security and Medicare, including votes as a U.S. congressman to raise the eligibility age for Medicare.
2. Disloyalty to Trump after he helped DeSantis get elected governor in 2018. Trump also plans to pound DeSantis on likability.
3. Trump wants to cast DeSantis as a lackey of former House Speaker Paul Ryan. On Trump’s social-media site, Truth Social, he attacked Ryan this week as a loser who “couldn’t get elected dogcatcher,” and said he should resign or be fired as a Fox Corp. board member.
4. DeSantis’ response to COVID is a top Trump target, even though the governor is known for resisting mask mandates. Trump plans to attack DeSantis’ caution in the earliest days of the pandemic — and try to fight the issue to a draw. A March 2020 headline in the Tampa Bay Times said: “DeSantis orders major shutdown of beaches, businesses in Broward, Palm Beach.” (DeSantis pushesbackonthis.)
5. DeSantis took heat for muddled comments, in a Fox News interview last week, about whether to maintain financial and military support for Ukraine. Trump plans to portray DeSantis as wishy-washy on the war, while he toes the MAGA line of cutting aid.

The only one of the 5 parts of Trump’s plan that I wouldn’t have guessed was the last one: attacking DeSantis on Ukraine. It actually is a pretty smart strategy, because it is a new line of attack and has the potential to solidify support for the president among Republicans who are moving toward skepticism about the Biden path of unlimited support for the war.

Republicans are split on the war, with opinions ranging from opposition to skepticism to full-blown support for Ukraine. DeSantis’ position isn’t clear at the moment, so there is some room for Trump to maneuver.

The other 4 points? Meh. Pretty weak tea. Trump was a full supporter of Paul Ryan, relies upon Lindsey Graham as a proxy, and was Mr. Lockdown at the beginning of COVID. Governor DeSantis was relying on Trump’s advice early until he realized it was ridiculous and harmful. Trump owns COVID lockdowns, not DeSantis.

What isn’t “meh” is Trump’s apparent growing strength in the primary polls. After what appeared to be a serious weakening of support, recent polls have been showing renewed strength. These show Trump with dramatically more support among Republican primary voters than the governor, despite the fact that Trump loses to Biden of all people in general election polling.

I would take whatever results these polls show with a pound of salt, though. Primaries are held in individual states, just as the electoral college in the general election determines the eventual victor. If DeSantis starts racking up victories–should he enter the race (hint: he will)–Trump’s support could collapse in a preference cascade.

Remember Howard Dean? Early support means little.

Support at the polls, not in the polls, determines the outcomes of elections.