The substance of Morris’ argument boils down to Edwards remaining in the race helps Hillary, and if he goes, so does she.
After a vigorous campaign, Edwards has fallen irreparably behind – the real race is now a grueling test of strength with Clinton. The contrast between the party’s insensitive establishment and the determined voices of change couldn’t be clearer.
Edwards divides the anti-Clinton vote – and so undermines the prospects for the changes that he so passionately demands in our government. By staying in, he’s helping deliver the nomination to the person whom he has described as the defender of the status quo.
The votes already cast and the polls of coming primaries all tell the same story: Edwards can’t win. After a distant second-place finish in Iowa, he still had some basis for hope. But when he finished far back in New Hampshire, his chances for victory vanished.
Agreed, as things stand now the Dem race is winding down to two candidates and neither is John Edwards. But reality may be a bit more nuanced than Morris is letting on. For starters, most of Edwards’ voters say that their second choice is Obama, and Morris uses that data point to argue that an Edwards exit transfers the majority of his vote to Obama. But what if there’s a Wilder Effect at play in Edwards’ support? What if many of his supporters are just saying that they’ll support Obama so they’ll feel better about themselves, but they’re really just hanging on to the last viable white man in the race on the Dem side? What do they do when that man is gone? Their action may be less predictable than the polls suggest.
But there may be no Wilder Effect in play. If that’s the case, by staying in Edwards gets the chance to hang around and wait to see if either Obama or Clinton stumbles badly. If either does, with Richardson, Biden and Dodd out Edwards the logical candidate to step up into their place.
And by staying in another week or two, Edwards will pick up a few more delegates, which will make him more powerful in the kingmaker role down the line. He can parlay that into an appointment in whichever candidate’s administration he ultimately supports.
Also, Morris is a certified Hillary hater and in his justifiable wish to see her defeated he’s missing a point. The longer Edwards stays in, the shorter time Hillary will have to adjust to the new state of the race once Edwards finally does drop out. Supposing that most of Edwards’ supporters do go to Obama, that shortened time to adjust surely benefits Obama.
Good things come to those who wait, and if you’re an Obama supporter, I would think that waiting for Edwards to drop out would be the thing to hope for.
Besides, what else does Silky have to do? Why not hang around and enjoy the spotlight a little longer?
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