Everyone knows Republicans can’t win the presidency unless they agree with Democrats on “comprehensive immigration reform” offering some sort of amnesty for illegal immigrants. I mean, everyone knows that.
In TX in 08, Latinos were 20% of electorate; Obama won 63-35. If Hillary wins them 90-10, it slices GOP's 11-pt 08 win in half. 1/
— Noam Scheiber (@noamscheiber) May 4, 2016
Everyone also knows that Donald Trump is the worst possible candidate to have if you are hoping to increase your standing with Latino voters from the 27% Mitt Romney got in 2012. Everyone knows that, too.
Alienate-cause someone hostile. GOP's growing fear that Trump might alienate a generation of Latino voters. https://t.co/MYXIZdavpP
— Brian Vieira (@scholarskills) June 6, 2016
So what to make of this new study which suggests that Trump’s standing with Latino voters is not only well above Romney’s sad numbers in 2012, but basically even with Hillary Clinton who has reversed her previous support of a border barrier and deportation and has, instead, promised to go even further than Barack Obama in his executive amnesty pitch?
A big data analysis from CULTURINTEL suggests that Trump currently enjoys 37% popularity with Latino-Americans:
As Fox News Latino points out, the numbers are incredibly encouraging for the Trump campaign and flies in the face of Beltway conventional wisdom:
Numerous articles and Op-Eds have discounted his so-called “rise” among Latinos by pointing out the flawed nature of polls. Back in February, after claiming a win with 46 percent of the Hispanic vote in Nevada, critics quickly challenged the full sample size of voters captured to disregard the number. Most recently, Latino Decisions published an article called “Why Polls On Latinos Get It Wrong,” confirming that current ways of polling are under-representing Latinos’ voice. Clearly, conventional political research is in question, but what if big data analysis reveals Trump’s rise is real, based on a sample size of over 1 million Hispanics? Based on big data analysis over the last 30 days as of June 1st, Trump reports 37 percent of Hispanic positive sentiment versus 41 percent for Clinton. Surprisingly, the candidates tie in negative sentiment across Hispanics at 38 percent, discounting the fact that Latinos default as Democrats or are completely turned off by Trump’s off-color comments. After all, over 50 percent of Latinos identify as political independents.
Now, let’s be clear, this is not a poll. These numbers are the result of analysis of online content culled and compiled by CULTERINTEL:
The data comes from unbiased and unfiltered digital and social conversations (across platforms that range from Facebook to forums and even review and special interest sites) that are mined and mapped across ethnic groups, generations or key stages of decision making. Whether you are a marketer, political strategist or even a medical professional, this social cultural intelligence will empower you with human insights to better engage and influence people.
But, the fact that this information does not come as a result of a poll does not necessarily discount its validity. Indeed, it could actually be more valid and have more resonance considering the source appears to be the independent thoughts contributed voluntarily to social media rather than a “yes or no” response to a scripted question from a polling firm.
Compare this data report with the mix of latest polls that are not nearly as encouraging, except for a recent NBC News poll which gives Trump 32% approval from Latino voters:
So what does it all mean? Well, perhaps the Latino voters are not necessarily as predictable as all the smart guys like to think.
Let’s not forget this week’s Esquire magazine article that features interviews with Latino residents who actually live on the border. According to Editor-in-Chief Jay Fielden, he was shocked to hear support for Trump’s wall policy.
“They said, ‘Build the wall. Hispanic, Anglo, Democratic, Republican, uncommitted, clueless, whatever, they said, ‘We want a wall, and we want it tied to some compassion.’ Most of those Hispanics are first-generation and they see it as unfair. I think they feel, as one guy said, ‘Get in line.’”
Could these realities turn into votes? Everyone knows they won’t. Just like everyone knew Trump would never get the nomination.