An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows the race between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders is a dead heat. This tracks with other recent polls which have shown the race narrowing nationally. NBC News reports:
Clinton gets support from 50 percent of Democratic primary voters, while Sanders gets support from 48 percent. That’s down from Clinton’s nine-point advantage a month ago, 53 percent to 44 percent…
In the current NBC/WSJ poll, Clinton leads Sanders by 15 points among women (57 percent to 42 percent), though that’s down from her 20-point-plus edge earlier this year
She’s also ahead of Sanders among minorities, 59 percent to 41 percent, but that’s a decline of her 30-point advantage here in past NBC/WSJ surveys.
The margin of error in this poll is five points so a two-point lead is well within that range. This NBC graphic shows how the national polls have narrowed since last summer:
The problem for Sanders is that roughly half of the Democrats in the country have already voted. Sanders is simply peaking too late. Had he gotten more aggressive sooner he might not be looking at a double-digit loss in New York. But Politico reports Sanders is not surrendering just yet:
Bernie Sanders urged caution Monday against interpreting polls showing him trailing Hillary Clinton in New York. His argument: We’ve been here before.
“Those are the public polls. The bottom line is, let’s look at the real poll tomorrow,” the Vermont senator told NBC’s “Today.” “Generally speaking, polling has underestimated how we do in elections.”
There is really nothing that points to a possible upset victory in New York for Sanders. At this point, holding Clinton to a single-digit win would be a surprise.