Consider this a close of a loop I started two weeks ago. When considering voter models in elections, one has to understand the shape of an electorate in each cycle. One of the key measures is party identification, and Gallup has been the gold standard on that metric. In fact, they’re about the only pollster that measures this on a consistent basis.
Two weeks ago, the split had Republicans up one at 28/27, and independents at 42%, with those splitting in slight favor of Democrats at +3. The week after that, Democrats had bounced back to lead 31/29 and a +8 lead among the 38% identifying as independent. Today, however, Republicans have ht their highest mark since February, tied with Democrats at 31%, while indies hit their lowest level since April:
The electorate has been trending — ever so slowly — in the GOP’s favor all summer and fall. And among the decreasing portion of non-affiliated voters, Democrats only have a +4 advantage, 49/45.