The outlook for tomorrow’s jobs reports still looks murky, but two leading indicators in the last two days suggest some upside coming on this key economic metric. For the past several weeks, the trend in weekly initial jobless claims has been fairly static. The massive churn in the job markets had declined enough to get under one million new claims a week, but it hadn’t budged much since dropping below that psychological level.
Today’s report showed a bit more movement in the topline, but another big jump in continuing paid claims, emphasis mine:
In the week ending September 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 837,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 3,000 from 870,000 to 873,000. The 4-week moving average was 867,250, a decrease of 11,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 878,250 to 879,000.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 8.1 percent for the week ending September 19, a decrease of 0.6 percentage point from the previous week’s revised rate. The previous week’s rate was revised up by 0.1 from 8.6 to 8.7 percent. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending September 19 was 11,767,000, a decrease of 980,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 167,000 from 12,580,000 to 12,747,000. The 4-week moving average was 12,701,250, a decrease of 381,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 41,750 from 13,040,750 to 13,082,500.