The headline on today’s ADP employment report shouldn’t be that it missed expectations, which it did. The big takeaway should be that their August payroll analysis was positive at all. Despite the ending of various government support programs for employment in the COVID-19 crisis, the US economy added jobs in August at a fairly significant pace. In any other contexts, the growth of 428,000 private-sector jobs would be cause for celebration.
And in fact, given the expectations of job-market collapse five weeks ago, probably should still be:
Private sector employment increased by 428,000 jobs from July to August according to the August ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by the ADP Research Institute® in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.