This should really be the question of the 2020 cycle, but we won’t get an answer until the year is almost over. Just like in every other cycle, pollsters are working overtime to get their data out into the public, and analysts looking for insight — or perhaps just hoping to succeed as soothsayers — jump all over them. Polling has never been terribly reliable at this point in any cycle, but this year’s crises and challenges should make us all very skeptical about any predictive value.
As usual, we have dueling headlines from pollsters over the presidential race. The Washington Post/ABC poll today declares that Joe Biden has a double-digit national lead among registered voters, 55/40, and eleven points among “certain to vote” respondents:
President Trump faces a significant challenge in his bid to win reelection in November, with former vice president Joe Biden holding a double-digit lead nationally and the president’s approval ratings crumbling amid a spreading coronavirus pandemic and a weakened economy, according to a Washington Post-ABC News poll.
The survey portrays an embattled president whose fortunes have declined markedly since the coronavirus arrived in the United States months ago. Trump’s prospects for winning in November appear to depend heavily on his ability to rally an enthusiastic core base of supporters and on convincing a broader swath of a largely skeptical public that he is dealing effectively with the pandemic.
Biden leads Trump 55 percent to 40 percent among registered voters. That compares with a 10-point Biden lead in May and a two-point edge in March, at a time when the pandemic was just beginning to spread rapidly in parts of the country. Among those who say they are certain to vote, Biden’s lead stands at 11 points.