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Impeachapalooza Day: What to expect when you're disrespecting

Today, the hallowed halls of Congress will grind to a halt, which makes today pretty much like every other day in Congress lately. In this case, partisan warfare has ramped up high enough that the Democratic House will propose two articles of impeachment against Republican President Donald Trump, with debate either already underway or beginning shortly. Votes are expected later this evening, and both articles are expected to pass.

The Associated Press attempts to prophesy the dully predictable:

American history is happening in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Democrats are driving President Donald Trump to the brink of impeachment Wednesday as the House takes up charges Trump abused his power and obstructed Congress in pressuring Ukraine to investigate political rivals and refusing to cooperate with the ensuing congressional probe.

The nation’s 45th president is on track to become only the third commander in chief to be impeached.

But first, watch for a daylong showdown that’s been boiling for years between Republicans loyal to Trump and Democrats who say his conduct toward Ukraine makes him unfit for office. Look, too, for legacy moments for Washington’s political veterans on the eve of the 2020 election year.

Well, “history is happening” at all times, so don’t get too excited. This particular bit of history is one that all sides will probably prefer to forget, especially Democrats and in particular in November, when Democrats will want to talk about anything else. Ask the 1998-1999 Republicans how they feel about their historic moment of impeachment, for instance.

The AP does get one prediction correct, even if it is an easy one. We won’t have to look for “legacy moments,” because we will have a full day of politicians grandstanding in the Legacy Moments Competition. Most of it will be a waste of time anyway, as minds have been made up in the House about impeachment since November 2016. The only surprise is when exactly the votes will come; right now they’re scheduled to begin at 6 PM ET, but will that be enough time to fit in everyone’s “legacy moment”? Don’t bet on it.

How did we reach this point? Don’t ask me, Trump told reporters late yesterday:

A “perfect” call? No, not really; Trump shouldn’t have brought up the Bidens in the call, as it was a petty and obviously self-serving thing to do. However, Trump is correct that nothing in it would have been considered impeachable in any rational or sane sense. If this was impeachable, then every president who’s ever juggled foreign policy with an eye to his re-election could have been impeached. And after this, when the House is held by a different party than the president’s, we can almost guarantee that the president will be.

Another dully predictable outcome will be that voters won’t be impressed by the House action. NBC News noted yesterday that the impeachment circus not only has convinced Americans of its necessity, it hasn’t even dented Trump’s approval ratings:

There have been ups (the economy, the killing of an ISIS leader) and there have been downs (the Mueller investigation and impeachment inquiry, to start) in his presidency. Through it all, though, the president’s job approval has remained steady across all polls, the NBC News/Wall Street Journal’s included.

Trump’s approval rating has hovered within the same nine-point range (upper: 47 percent in the Oct. 14-17, 2018, poll; lower: 38 percent in Oct. 23-26, 2017) since his inauguration in January 2017.

That brings us back to Trump’s claim of “zero” responsibility for the Kabuki theater unfolding before our eyes today. Although Trump won’t ever admit it, he’s helped stoke the partisan fires that will drive the vote today, but this moment was inevitable from the moment Democrats retook the House last year. They have spent all year looking for their best pretext for impeachment and thought Adam Schiff’s whistleblower looked like a perfect vehicle. Instead, they’ve strapped themselves to a 1976 Pinto without brakes racing backward into gas tanker while imagining that they’re riding forward to a big victory in a Maserati. The explosion will damage everyone, but those closest to it will suffer the most.

When it’s over, perhaps we’ll see whether anyone wants to take responsibility for the wreckage.

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