Granted, this comes from internal polling from a GOP-affiliated PAC, but Politico’s Jake Sherman and Anna Palmer report that it’s getting noticed on Capitol Hill nonetheless. A few weeks back, the American Action Network launched a $7 million ad buy aimed at House districts that flipped to Democrats in 2018, with messaging focused on the impeachment of Donald Trump. They followed up with polling in three districts to measure the impact of the messaging, and it certainly looks as though voters are poised to punish their representatives for the attempt to impeach Trump rather than let voters decide next November:
AAN polled in the swing districts of Reps. SUSIE LEE (D-Nev.) and ANTHONY BRINDISI (D-N.Y.) and the very heavily Trump district represented by Rep. KENDRA HORN (D-Okla.).
HERE’S THE TOPLINE: IMPEACHMENT APPEARS — at this point, according to this polling — to be a liability. In BRINDISI’S and LEE’S districts, 53% of voters are less likely to vote for them if they support impeachment. 48% of voters are less likely to vote for HORN — whose district is quite conservative.
THIS IS NOTABLE TOO … MORE THAN 60% in each of these districts say they believe voters, not the impeachment process, should decide whether to keep Trump in office.
POLITICIANS ARE VERY FOND OF SAYING that impeachment simply isn’t breaking through back home, but this poll shows that’s BS. 64% of LEE’S constituents have seen, read or heard about their representative on impeachment, 78% of BRINDISI’S and 79% of HORN’S.
This is a pretty diverse sampling of districts, which might be why this is making an impression. Horn has the toughest district of the trio, the R+10 OK-05, where Trump won in 2016 by nearly 14 points. Trump won by 15 in Brindisi’s NY-22, but the Cook index is a less daunting R+6. Lee should have the easiest time in NV-03, which not only is evenly split but was specifically created with the intention of making it a “fair fight” district. The Cook index there is only R+2, and Trump only won by a single-point plurality, 48/47, while Lee won her race 52/43 two years later over Danny Tarkanian.