Consider this a measure of House Democrats’ impotence, and perhaps of Nancy Pelosi’s wisdom. Despite Democrats’ 24/7 hyperbole in demanding impeachment, the needle has not moved at all among voters, according to the latest poll from Quinnipiac. Six in ten American voters oppose impeachment, just as they have for the last six months, although they’re far from convinced that Robert Mueller exonerated Trump in any way.
Take a look at just how opposed voters are to impeachment across almost all demos, and how stable the overall response has been since December:
The most amazing takeaway here is that the Mueller report doesn’t appear to have had any impact on the popular trajectory on impeachment. That would have likely changed if Mueller found a smoking gun on collusion, but even the whiff of smoke on obstruction hasn’t changed minds. Opposition to impeachment has ranged between 59% and 66% for six months in this series, and it doesn’t appear to be gaining any traction now despite the histrionics from the House Judiciary Committee and their subpoena fights.
Next, take a look at the demos. Only two support impeachment: Democrats and black voters, by roughly identical margins. Every other demo has a majority opposed to impeachment, and it’s not even a close call in any of them. The narrowest majority against impeachment is among Hispanics, where impeachment still fails by double digits, 39/53. Young voters, most likely to be progressive activists in the making, oppose it by 23 points. And considering that Democrats usually get around 90% of the African-American vote in elections, that 63/31 in their demo looks weaker than the numbers suggest on their own.
Small wonder that Nancy Pelosi wants to talk about anything else but impeachment. It’s an electoral loser and she knows it, even if the rest of her caucus hasn’t figured it out.
That’s not to say that the poll is chock full of good news for Trump. Fifty-seven percent think Trump committed crimes before he took office, and it’s an even 45/45 split on whether he committed crimes in office. Sixty-nine percent think the Department of Justice should be able to indict a sitting president, and 55% say Mueller didn’t clear Trump of anything.
In other words, it’s not as if Quinnipiac got a Trump-friendly sample as an anomaly. It’s that voters take undoing an election extremely seriously, and with another one on the way, they overwhelmingly oppose Congress from taking that action. Perhaps Jerrold Nadler should start listening to them.