Reports of Republican resurgence in Colorado may turn out to be … premature. An Emerson landline-only poll put Donald Trump up four points early last week, 42/38, but a new poll from Colorado Mesa University and PBS shows Hillary Clinton up nine points and Trump still mired in the mid-30s in a two-way race, 44/35. In the four-way race, Hillary leads 41/34, with Gary Johnson pulling 12% of the vote:
The September 2016 Colorado Mesa University-Rocky Mountain PBS Poll of Colorado shows that Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump, 44% to 35%, among the state’s likely voters. Secretary Clinton’s favorable ratings (40%) are higher than Mr. Trump’s (29%); her net favorable rating is minus 14 while Mr. Trump’s net favorability is minus 38. …
The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted September 14-18, 2016 by faculty, staff and students from Colorado Mesa University and the Center for Opinion Research Center at Franklin & Marshall College. The poll was designed and administered by Colorado Mesa University and the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall in partnership Rocky Mountain PBS. The data included in this release represent the responses of 540 Colorado registered voters, including 172 Democrats, 174 Republicans, and 154 Independents.
It’s a sample of RVs rather than likely voters, but that’s not enough to account for a nine-point gap. The partisan split would benefit Trump more than Hillary, with its even split between Republicans and Democrats. In 2012, turnout favored Democrats by five points, 34/29/37. If anything, independents get undersampled in this poll.
That doesn’t make the results any better. According to the internals of this poll, Clinton leads among Colorado independents 34/26, over … Johnson. Trump only wins 12% of Colorado’s independents. That seems odd, considering the lack of relative movement from the two-way race to the four-way race, but it’s very possible that the independents looking for a Johnson or Stein vote simply refused to choose between Clinton and Trump.
The rest of the internals look depressing for GOP hopes, too. Clinton wins both men and women, although only by pluralities in the mid-thirties. Trump wins among seniors 41/37, but loses the other two age demos. In fact, he finishes third again for those under 40, with Hillary and Johnson separated by just six points, 33/27 to Trump’s 17%. Finally, excluding Emerson, this poll fits right into the patterns seen in Real Clear Politics’ aggregation, too.
The presidential race is only part of the bad news, though. Senate nominee Darryl Glenn trails Democratic incumbent Michael Bennet by thirteen points with less than seven weeks to go. There are a large pool of voters left to make up their minds in this race though (22%), and those usually tend to break against the incumbent. Still, the internals here are as bad for Glenn. He’s losing all of the age and income demos, and independents are breaking 41/10 to Bennet, with another 41% undecided. He’d have to get a huge split the other way on Election Day to catch up.
The poll does provide one piece of good news — state-run single-payer health insurance is having its mellow harshed in Colorado. Amendment 69 to launch ColoradoCare only gets 30% support, and only half of that is strong, to 56% opposition. That’s one small piece of sunlight in an otherwise gloomy survey.
Update: We’ll have more on this later today, I’d guess, but it’s worth noting the Quinnipiac result that dropped this afternoon:
Four-way races which list both presidential and vice-presidential candidates, except Georgia where Green Party candidate Jill Stein is not on the ballot, show:
- Colorado: Clinton with 44 percent to Trump’s 42 percent, with 10 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton topped Trump 41 – 33 percent in the four-way race in an August 17 Quinnipiac University poll;
- Georgia: Trump leads Clinton 47 – 40 percent, with 9 percent for Johnson;
- Iowa: Trump tops Clinton 44 – 37 percent, with 10 percent for Johnson and 2 percent for Stein. Clinton had 41 percent to Trump’s 39 percent last month;
- Virginia: Clinton leads Trump 45 – 39 percent, with 8 percent for Johnson and 1 percent for Stein. Clinton was ahead 45 – 34 percent August 17.
Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
- Colorado: Clinton and Trump tied 47 – 47 percent;
- Georgia: Trump leads Clinton 50 – 44 percent;
- Iowa: Trump tops Clinton 50 – 44 percent;
- Virginia: Clinton leads Trump 50 – 43 percent.