Those hoping for a repeat of Wisconsin in New York tomorrow had better steel themselves for disappointment. Donald Trump’s dominating lead in the Empire State has remained constant across all polls, and the latest NBC 4/WSJ/Marist poll falls right into line with the consensus. Don’t expect too much variation depending on an upstate/downstate divide, either:
In the contest for the Republican presidential nomination, businessman Donald Trump, 54%, leads Ohio Governor John Kasich, 25%, by 29 points among likely Republican primary voters in New York State. Texas Senator Ted Cruz receives 16% of the likely GOP electorate. Trump maintains a commanding lead over his Republican rivals. In the previous NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist Poll of New York, Trump was ahead of Kasich by 33 points.
“Donald Trump is well-positioned to carry New York handily and is likely to acquire a sizeable number of New York’s delegates, as a result,” says Dr. Lee Miringoff, Director of The Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. 64% of likely Republican voters with a candidate preference strongly support their choice of candidate. Seven in ten Trump supporters, 70%, say they will not waver in their commitment to him.
This falls right into line with the polling consensus at Real Clear Politics. That includes the order in which the candidates finish, too. Ted “New York values” Cruz now finishes third in most April polls behind John Kasich. The RCP average has him trailing Kasich by five points, 23/18, and only one poll in the last ten has Cruz in second place — and that one put him at 21%. Cruz has long since looked for greener pastures in Indiana and California, and for good reason.
Trump’s domination extends to the demos, as one would expect. He doesn’t have a problem with women, at least Republican women in New York, winning the demo 53/23/17 over Kasich and Cruz. He gets majorities in both under-$50K and over-$50K income demos, and wins by almost the exact same margins among moderates (54%) and conservatives (55%). Trump gets majorities in almost every demo, but falls just short among Protestants at 45/30/20. Interestingly, considering some other reaction in Catholic circles, Trump wins that demo 63/21/12. Hmmmm.
Cruz’ NY fade leaves just Kasich to keep Trump from crossing the 50% threshold statewide and in each Congressional district to prevent a winner-take-all delegate allocation. Based on all the polling, that seems iffy, and the NBC 4/WSJ/Marist poll makes it look even iffier. Trump dominates downstate 58/24 over Kasich, but — surprise, surprise — he’s dominating upstate by about the same number among likely Republican primary voters, 52/25, with Cruz only at 17%. Could the combined power of Kasich/Cruz hold Trump under 50% in a couple of CDs? Sure, but that’s only going to take a few delegates at best from the 95 at stake tomorrow night. If Trump ends up with less than 90, it will be a shock.