“Talk about American history,” Senator Elizabeth Warren says, but then fails at American geography — and presidential politics. Earlier today, Warren tried singing the praises of Jeanne Shaheen, currently in a fight to retain her seat in the Senate against former Senator Scott Brown — whom Warren beat in 2012 in Massachusetts. One might think that a Commonwealth official could tell the difference between Vermont and New Hampshire, especially one who might need support in the latter for a future presidential run, as the Washington Post’s Aaron Blake notes:
Warren’s right about Shaheen’s history, even if she’s wrong about the state to which it applies. Shaheen is the only woman to have been elected both to the Senate and as governor, the latter for three two-year terms in the Granite State. She was also the first woman to win a gubernatorial election at all in New Hampshire. The current governor, Maggie Hassan (D), is the second, and is running for another term next week. The RCP average for the gubernatorial race shows Hassan with a consistent if not spectacular lead of 6.5 points over challenger Walt Havenstein, although a New England College poll taken on Friday shows the race deadlocked at 47/47.
The same poll shows Scott Brown leading Shaheen by one at 48/47, but the polls have mainly put the contest in the margin of error. The RCP average has Shaheen up 2.2 points, with every other poll in October showing a slim lead for the incumbent. That’s better news for Brown than last week’s data from YouGov, which has Shaheen up five with leaners and Hassan up nine over Havenstein. Brown barely edges Shaheen among independents in that poll 39/36, and with leaners his lead gets cut to 43/42.
If those numbers hold up on Election Day, Brown won’t have enough room to win, unless the NEC poll is catching a late-breaking GOP wave. Even there, though, Brown trails among independents in the robo-poll, which doesn’t provide a lot of comfort about his chances in New Hampshire. If Brown can pull this out in the last few days, he could lay claim to a historical outcome of his own.