Some have suggested that Republicans could nominate a syphilitic camel in 2012 and still beat Barack Obama. (Hey, I’m willing to hear the camel out; what’s his position on taxes?) That sounded like hyperbole until Scott Rasmussen released this video today, discussing the internals of his head-to-head matchups in weekly tracking polls. Mitt Romney now ties Obama 45/45 in the latest three-day cycle, but the uncommitted voters — 420 respondents, 12% of their sample — have a distinctly sour take on the President:
Note that this doesn’t equate entirely to “independents,” although I’d guess that most of these respondents are unaffiliated. Some independents are committed to one candidate already, and independents make up more than 12% of the population, of course. This shows that most people are already engaged enough to make a choice — perhaps not a strong choice, but at least an interim choice. And even those who can’t pull the lever at the moment are very disinclined to vote for the incumbent they know, which is a very bad sign for Obama.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 26% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as president. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -14 (see trends).
In a potential Election 2012 matchup, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum is at 45% while President Obama earns 44%. This is the first time in any poll that Santorum has led the president. Several other GOP challengers have led the president a single time in the polls including Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Newt Gingrich. Each man briefly held the lead while they were surging in the polls, only to fall quickly. It remains to be seen what will happen to Santorum’s support.
Santorum gets 78% of the Republican vote and leads by ten among those not affiliated with either major party. President Obama get 83% of the Democratic vote in that matchup. Santorum leads by 16 points among men but trails by 12 among women. As is typically the case in all matchups, the president leads among those under 40 while the GOP hopeful leads among those who are over 40.
But how does Zeeba do head-to- … er … snout?