Did the only debate in the Senate race in Nevada provide any movement? Perhaps just a bit, although today’s Rasmussen survey result falls well within the margin of error of the poll previous to the debate. Sharron Angle hits 50% and tops Harry Reid by three points as Nevada voters start to solidify their choices:
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his Republican challenger Sharron Angle remain locked in a tight race for the U.S. Senate in Nevada in the first survey following last Thursday night’s debate.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Angle with 50% to Reid’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer another candidate in the race, and one percent (1%) are undecided. …
A week ago, Angle held an insignificant 49% to 48% lead in a contest that has been marked for months by its closeness. In seven of eight surveys prior to this one since July, Reid and Angle have been three points apart or less. Both have hit the 50% mark one time.
It’s actually a four-point lead without leaners, 50/46, for Angle in the survey. The leaners come from independents, who back Angle 50/42 without leaners and 50/44 with them. Angle gets 16% of Democrats either way, while losing 13% of Republicans without leaners and 15% with leaners.
The level of certainty in the race is rather impressive. Without leaners, only 4% of overall voters say that they haven’t made a final decision. That comprises 2% of Republicans, 1% of Democrats, and 2% of independents. However, there is also some better news buried in the crosstabs for Angle on the question of certainty. Among those who claim to be “certain to vote,” Angle has an eight-point lead with the leaners, 53/45, and nine points without leaners, 53/44.
Reid will have problems making a final sale among the undecided. His favorability rating is below Angle’s, 43/55 and 48/50 respectively. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters want ObamaCare repealed, the bill that Reid shoved through the Senate and then used the unusual reconciliation process to finalize. Barack Obam’s approval is an albatross around Reid’s neck at 43/56.
As it was in the last survey, the partisan split is equal in the poll at 37/37. That may overstate Democratic turnout, especially given Rory Reid’s collapse at the top of the ticket.