More than a few readers noticed the new lows that Barack Obama hit over the weekend in the Gallup daily tracking poll, which otherwise may have gone unnoticed — if it still wasn’t at 42% today. That comes from a three-day rolling average encompassing Thursday through Saturday, when weekend polling usually means more sympathetic results for Democrats. Obama’s rating brings his Q3 average to 45%, down from 47.5% in Q2, and his weekly average also hits 45%.
Gallup doesn’t provide any written analysis for either measure, but does provide the breakdown in approval by demographic for the weekly results, and it looks devastating. Obama maintains a majority approval among 18-29YOs, but they’re not necessarily going to turn out in force anyway. The senior vote will be the most reliable, and Obama hits a new low of 36% among voters 65 and older. He doesn’t do much better with 50-64YOs at 42%, up just two points from the low for that demo he hit last week.
Democrats in the East may call on Obama to join them on the campaign trail; Obama gets a 54% approval rating in that region. Don’t expect to see him much beyond the Ohio valley, though (and probably not there much, either). In the Midwest and West, Obama only gets a 44% approval rating, and in the South, a 41% rating. Democrats hoping to salvage their re-election campaigns in those areas had better start distancing themselves from Obama.
President Obama will try to capitalize on a huge win for the White House in Colorado by aggressively hitting the campaign trail this week.
Obama will make stops in three states where Democratic incumbent senators are in tight races. Democrats hold a 59-41 advantage in the Senate, but Republicans are almost certain to pick up a handful of seats in the upper chamber. …
Obama will travel on Monday to California, where Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) is in the fight of her life against Republican Carly Fiorina. The president is scheduled to speak in Los Angeles for a fundraiser for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
He’ll also stop over Monday in Wisconsin, where Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold’s race is considered a toss-up. Obama will attend an event for the state’s Democratic Party with Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who’s running for governor.
Let’s take a moment to relish the definition of momentum here, noted by Analogkid2112 on Twitter, which is a Democrat winning a Democratic primary. That may be all the momentum Obama sees in 2010, so he’d better enjoy it while he can.
A few more points from the Gallup breakdown:
- Obama is now below 50% in all income groups, with a high of 49% from the lowest income earners.
- Obama gets a 56% among those with post-graduate college degrees, but falls below 50% among voters of all other levels of education.
- Only 42% of independents approve of his performance, and among “pure independents,” that drops to 36%.
- 54% of singles approve of Obama’s performance, while only 37% of married voters do.
As long as Obama campaigns among single post-graduate degree holders, he should do well in the midterms.
Update: As several people are pointing out, Obama hit 50% disapproval today, for the first time, I believe.