The prevailing analysis among hopeful conservatives is that 2010 will look like 1994.  It’s probably going to feel a lot more like 2006, though just in reverse.  The NRSC launches its first broadside of the midterm campaign with “Broken Promises,” a web-only video that frames the elections as a referendum on Democratic pledges to drain the swamp that come directly from the 2006 and 2008 campaigns.  The Republican campaign group is betting that scandals and legislative arrogance will sweep Democrats out of power:

That’s an 83-second spot on Democratic corruption and power grabs without mentioning PMA, the late John Murtha, Pete Visclosky, and so on — which makes sense, since the NRSC focuses on Senate races. But do you notice something? Harry Reid doesn’t make an appearance in this video. Instead, the ad closes on the image of Nancy Pelosi. Half of the ad does focus on House Democrats, and a good portion of the rest on Obama. It’s the abuses of the House that will generate the most passion, and the NRSC aims carefully in its opening salvo.