Earlier this morning, I predicted that Barack Obama would win a narrow victory over Hillary Clinton in Texas. However, Jay Reding looks at the latest Real Clear Politics polling and believes that Hillary could become the Comeback Queen tonight. If so, she may have a claim to the momentum that her campaign insists has developed over the weekend.
Let’s take a look at the numbers. Of the seven polls that RCP has tracked over the last week, Obama has only won three of them, and each only by a point. In the other four, Hillary has beaten Obama by one, three, five, and six points — and all seven polls surveyed likely primay voters. Amazingly, Zogby isn’t even the outlier; they have Hillary up by three. RCP puts the average at a 1.7% advantage for Clinton, a dead heat in any sense.
That represents a minor miracle at this point. Texas began sliding towards Obama after the Wisconsin debacle, where what should have been a close race turned into a 17-point drubbing for Hillary. These polls may show that Obamamentum may have halted over the last week, and voters may be reconsidering the end of the Democratic primary process.
However, we shouldn’t get ahead of ourselves, either. Wisconsin looked like something close to a dead heat as well, and in the end, Obama got voters to the polls. The same could easily happen in Texas. So far, Hillary has only pulled one close race into her column, and that came two months ago in New Hampshire.
I’m still predicting a narrow Obama win in Texas. However, here’s the question for Hot Air readers: If Obama loses Texas, does that give Hillary a reason to demand his withdrawal from the race? And don’t forget to check back at 6 pm CT for the Hot Air live-blog of the primary results. (via Mitch Berg)