The first rule of interpreting early-voting patterns is that you can’t interpret early-voting patterns. There are too many unknowns about Election Day turnout to draw any safe conclusions from the early returns.
But there’s an exception for Nevada political journalist Jon Ralston, who’s been doing this a long time. And in this case he’s not really “interpreting” early turnout, he’s simply comparing this year’s Democratic advantage to 2016’s Democratic advantage. Given Biden’s formidable polling lead and the avalanche of donations lefties have sent to their candidates over the past month, one would expect a crushing lead in early voting for Team Blue as Democrats race to the polls to cast their ballots against Trump. Then we get some suspense over whether Republicans can erase that big lead on November 3.
But that’s not what the Nevada numbers show, says Ralston. Democrats are leading, as they traditionally do, but the “firewall” they’re building against Republican turnout on Election Day isn’t as impressive this year as you might expect — so far.