Encouraging polls are hard to come by lately but he’s had a couple. Trafalgar gave him a good one a few days ago when they found him a point up in Wisconsin, matching his margin from 2016. That was an outlier, as the previous three surveys of the state had Biden ahead by eight, eight, and 11 points. But if anyone’s entitled to a benefit of the doubt on a Rust Belt poll it’s Trafalgar, which detected Trump’s impending upsets there four years ago when no other pollster did. So maybe Wisconsin’s tighter at the moment than the conventional wisdom believes.
The president got another pair of good results today. A University of Texas survey has him ahead of Biden by four points there, which is half the margin he enjoyed against Hillary. But no one expects Trump to build on his 2016 margins in the electoral college this fall; if he wins, it’ll be by the skin of his teeth. Holding Texas is the first baby step towards that goal. UT says it’s shaping up that way at the moment despite a 46/48 job approval for POTUS in the state. Among independents it’s at 36/50, although Trump enjoys a 41/27 lead over Biden among that group. They’re the difference for him right now — but 32 percent of indies remain undecided. If most of them tilt Democratic Texas would be a toss-up.
Which, actually, is how other recent polls of the state have seen the race. Fox News found Biden up a point a few weeks ago. Early last month Quinnipiac found Trump up a point. It’s in play, but POTUS probably retains a small advantage. UT’s result isn’t an outlier.