The Ukraine impeachment saga has become surprisingly simple and straightforward, with only two matters of any real suspense. One: Can Democrats get 51 votes in the Senate to remove Trump? They won’t get anywhere near the 67 they need to actually remove him, but if they can get 51 they can boast that majorities in both chambers agree that the president did something sufficiently bad that he should no longer be president because of it.
Two: What does Gordon Sondland know? Unless and until one of the other major players in the Ukraine matter testifies — Rudy Giuliani, Mick Mulvaney, or John Bolton — then Sondland is the only game in town. He’s the only witness who was directly engaged with both Trump and the Ukrainians. Thus he’s the only person who could conceivably attest that he heard Trump with his own ears say that his purpose in all this really was corrupt. That is, that he was interested in the Burisma probe because he feared Joe Biden would defeat him next year in the election and needed some foreign dirt to prevent that from happening.
What did Sondland know, and what is he willing to say? That’s the whole ballgame. Unless John Bolton decides that he’s prepared to testify.