Take it from a right-winger born and raised in NYC: There’s no shame in having contempt for your home state’s politics.
Although it does raise the question of why someone harboring that contempt would want to represent that state in the U.S. Senate.
Sinema would say, I think, that the old Arizona was crazy but the exciting, new, politically and ethnically more diverse Arizona is the farthest thing from it and she’d be proud to represent it. She should embrace that message, then. Run on a “Crazy No More!” platform the rest of the way. See how it plays with the state’s Republican majority, most of whom were enthusiastically onboard with the “craziness” circa 2010.
Maybe this is a new compromise position by Democrats amid all the chatter lately about how unfair it is that the Senate guarantees equal representation for small states. If you can’t amend the Constitution to change that and you can’t convince Americans to add senators for Puerto Rico and D.C., you can at least try to elect Democrats from red jurisdictions who hate their home states.
— The Senate Majority (@NRSC) October 17, 2018
Is anyone keeping a list of choice soundbites about Arizona from Sinema 1.0, by the way? There are now at least two “crazy” ones plus a zesty “meth lab of democracy” shot in front of the Kos crowd. It is interesting that this heretofore snide progressive has trended sensibly centrist in the last few years just as she began eyeing statewide office in a red stronghold.
It’s a real sign of maturity, I tell you.
Even so, I continue to think she’s the Dems’ best chance to steal a red seat next month. Betomania has faded in Texas to the extent it ever actually existed. Bredesen looks like he’ll be carried away in Tennessee by the Kavanaugh backlash. Nevada is tight, but Dean Heller has led in the last three polls after trailing in September. Sinema has been surprisingly resilient for a Dem in Arizona, though. That may be changing: The last poll of the state had McSally suddenly up six, which might mean Republicans are coming home after a bitter three-way primary or that the Kavanaugh backlash has caught up to the Democratic nominee there too. But all of our hopes of a red surge in AZ are resting on that single poll. What if it’s an outlier? Sinema led in survey after survey through the summer and fall and still led narrowly in two of the three polls taken this month, all of which were conducted after the Ford/Kavanaugh hearing. In fact, the recent poll putting McSally up six had Sinema at just 41 percent, her worst share of the vote since late June. Normally she’s in the upper 40s, which, again, makes me think that poll’s an outlier. If she does end up losing, I suspect it’ll be much closer than six points.
Then there’s this:
That’s not Sinema’s approval rating. It’s not McSally’s either. It’s Trump’s. Of five battleground states polled by CNN, he was around 50/50 in four of them, give or take a few points. His worst state besides Arizona was Nevada, which was won by Hillary Clinton two years ago. He’s at 45/51 there, not far from break-even. For some reason the bottom has dropped out for him in AZ, a state he won, though. I can only assume it’s a reaction to the hostility between him and John McCain, and if it is, that’s potentially a problem for McSally. She applauded Trump during the primary to protect her right flank from Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio. If some McCain fans hold a grudge and decide to cross the aisle for Sinema to punish Trump (and McSally), that may be enough to make the state go blue. If I were her, I’d dial up Cindy McCain and beg for a campaign rally cameo.