Probably his best poll anywhere in a week, and a useful shot of morale for supporters as evidence that the “Access Hollywood” uproar might be blowing over — especially after that bloodbath poll of the state yesterday. If you believe WSJ/NBC, he’s back on track there after having trailed Clinton in the last four surveys.
Note, though, that the poll was conducted between October 10-12. It includes reaction to Sunday’s debate but little, if any, reaction to the groping accusations that dropped last night.
In Ohio, Trump holds a one-point advantage over Clinton among likely voters, 42 percent to 41 percent, with Johnson at 9 percent and Stein at 4 percent, although that margin is inside the poll’s margin of error.
Clinton and Trump are tied in a two-way race in the Buckeye State — 45 percent to 45 percent…
In Ohio, incumbent GOP Sen. Rob Portman holds an 18-point lead over Democratic challenger Ted Strickland, 55 percent to 37 percent.
The Senate Republican is running 14 points ahead of the Republican presidential nominee. As for how Trump’s doing it, that’s simple. WSJ/NBC is expecting a much redder electorate this year than Ohio saw in 2012:
Explaining Ohio: NBC/WSJ/Marist poll had party ID even there b/w Ds and Rs.
Per '12 exit poll, it was D+7.
So it's all about turnout
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) October 13, 2016
Even with higher Republican turnout, Trump’s been stuck in the low 40s in Ohio polling for weeks. He’s been at either 42 or 43 percent in the four-way race in eight of the last nine polls there. He leads in this one not because he’s rising but because Clinton, who’d been in the mid-40s in the last few surveys, suddenly dipped to 41 percent. That’s a function of NBC’s turnout model more than anything else, I’d guess, but who knows? Maybe some of the Wikileaks stuff that’s come out has hurt her with young progressives.
Ohio is the good news in the poll. The bad news is North Carolina, where Clinton leads by four, 45/41. That’s tied for her biggest lead there this month, and it continues a string of 10 straight polls of NC that she’s topped. Her overall lead isn’t big at 2.9 points but it’s been durable and 41 percent is Trump’s smallest number there in October. Everyone’s studied enough electoral maps by now to know that he needs both of these states to go red to have any chance to win: At the barest minimum, his path to 270 requires Ohio, North Carolina, Florida, and then, if Pennsylvania is a lost cause, some kind of toss-up-state grab bag plus an upset or two in blue states like Wisconsin. Nevada’s been a strong swing state for him all year but he’s down by four and six points in two new polls there. The last poll of New Hampshire was tight but he hasn’t led a single survey there all year. Florida has been close for most of the race but Clinton seems to have built a reliable three-point lead lately. He’s not contesting Virginia anymore. Pennsylvania is what it is. And Utah and Georgia might be prepared to take electoral votes out of his column, which, if it happens, would largely offset even a gigantic Trump upset in PA. Even Ohio is complicated right now because Gary Johnson is winning 25 percent of voters under 30 there in the NBC poll. If they shift away from the third-party candidate down the stretch, odds are they’ll be shifting towards Clinton given young America’s liberal tilt. Winning Ohio would be nice, but Ohio was always a stepping stone for Trump. Where’s the next step?
Here he is at a rally today promising to release evidence that disproves the sexual assault allegations against him “at the appropriate time.” No rush, buddy.