Whatever gave him that idea?


A few months ago Harry Enten looked at the favorable ratings for each Democratic and Republican nominee as of late March/early April of the year of the election. Clinton’s “strongly unfavorable” numbers were higher than any nominee since 1980, with one exception, and the gap between her “strongly favorable” and “strongly unfavorable” ratings was the widest of any nominee since 1980 — again, with one exception. Care to guess who the exception is?

America doesn’t like Hillary, and that includes lots of Democrats. But maybe fewer now than before:


Two weeks ago Trump had a 13-point advantage among voters of both parties who said they were “enthusiastic” about their candidate and an eight-point advantage when you included those who said they were “satisfied.” The number of Clinton voters who pronounced themselves “dissatisfied” with her nearly doubled the number of Trumpers who said the same about him. Two weeks later he’s lost six points on enthusiasm while Clinton’s gained five, leaving his advantage at just two points. She now has the advantage when you include “satisfied” voters, and the number of “dissatisfieds” in his camp is nearly double hers. If that’s all a byproduct of the first debate then, in theory, it can be undone with a strong Trump performance in the second. If there’s more to it, involving a backlash to Trump over his taxes or the Alicia Machado thing or whatever, then this may be evidence of undecideds starting to write him off. In which case maybe a solid debate won’t move the needle as much as we think.