The oil apocalypse finally caught up to him. His approval’s at 42/50 on the spill and, for the first time, below 50 percent overall at 45/48. To see how far public confidence in him has declined, start on page 19 of the crosstabs and just keep scrolling. These two tables will give you a taste, though:


The polling on ObamaCare is up a tiny bit (from 36/48 in March to 40/44), which is in line with other recent surveys, but that’s really the extent of the good news for him. Compare the data above to some of the quotes in the Journal’s piece from voters; the Hopenchange brand has taken enough of a hit that I think we’ve officially moved from a “Can the Democrats rebound?” narrative for the fall to a “Can the Democrats stop the bleeding?” one.

“As a Democrat and as a woman, I am disappointed in him,” said poll respondent Melissa Riner, a 42-year-old law clerk from Mesa, Ariz. Referring to the oil spill, Ms. Riner added, “I don’t think he’s handling it. He doesn’t seem to be doing anything. He just talks.”

James Ciarmataro, a 23-year-old stay-at-home dad from Macomb, Mich., said it was difficult to relate to Mr. Obama, because the president is “eating steak dinners at the White House and playing golf” while the country is suffering.

An independent, Mr. Ciarmataro said he would vote in November for “whoever seems the newest, and doesn’t seem to have any ties to anybody else.”

62 percent say the country’s on the wrong track, the highest figure of Obama’s presidency, and the enthusiasm gap (“high interest”) for the midterms between McCain voters in ’08 versus Obama voters is now, er, 71/44. Ciarmataro’s not the only one eager to give new people a chance, either: The split between those who want to reelect their congressman versus those who want someone new stands at 35/57. The latter number is the highest since 1992.

Two more tidbits for you. First, a succinct explanation for why even so many Democrats in Congress are pro-Israel:

And second, a reminder of why Sarahcuda’s endorsement is coveted in Republican primaries but maybe not so much in general elections:

That split on the tea party isn’t encouraging either, and the bottom line about social security is migraine-inducing given the approaching entitlements crisis. All told, watch your back, Sharron Angle! Exit fun fact: BP’s approval rating stands at six percent. A WSJ/NBC poll taken a few years ago measured O.J. Simpson’s at 11 percent.