I’ve always thought IA was reputable, but they actually did worse than ARG on that 2008 primary report card that I keep linking and people are telling me on Twitter (not just lefties, either) to proceed with caution. Duly noted.
But an awful lot of numbers from an awful lot of people today seem to be heading in this direction.
According to the survey conducted Sunday evening, Brown leads the Democratic attorney general 52 percent to 43 percent.
“I actually think the bottom is falling out,” said InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery, referring to Coakley’s fall in the polls over the last ten days. “I think that this candidate is in freefall. Clearly this race is imploding for her.”…
Brown holds a 15-point lead among males and crushes Coakley by 41 points among self-described independents, a group that’s been steadily inching away from the Democratic party over the last year due to growing apprehension with government spending, bailouts and health care reform…
And the survey shows almost a quarter of Democratic voters lining up with Brown.
That’s exactly what ARG showed, handing 23 percent of Democrats to Scotty B. So what makes this poll so interesting? Ah: It was conducted last night, after The One’s descent from Olympus to Massachusetts. Either he did nothing for her or … he made things worse. Or, I guess, she could be cratering so badly that he broke her fall a tiny bit. A nine-point lead today instead of the 10-pointer it would have been?
Believe it or not, IA’s CEO thinks they may be lowballing Brown’s lead by undersampling independents. One detail gives me pause, though: They have Brown winning 61/30 in the 18-to-29 group, which should be ground zero for Hopenchange fee-vah — especially with all the college liberals in Massachusetts. Even with heavy momentum for Brown, that’s simply impossible to believe.
Exit question: Given the stakes for ObamaCare, would this be the biggest upset in modern political history? Chris Cillizza floats a few other candidates for that honor, but go see for yourself. It’s no contest.
Update: And with this, the AP pessimism meter is officially unplugged. From Time’s Karen Tumulty:
coakley rally, set to start in five minutes in middle school gym, is 3/4 empty. they’ve pulled curtain across middle of gym.