For all the hubbub over a rebirth of conservatism in NY-23, you can make the case that the two biggest beneficiaries of a GOP sweep tonight will be moderate Republicans and centrist Democrats. Why moderate Republicans when Scozzafava just got blown out of the water? Because: As this piece at Big Government shrewdly explains, the reason grassroots conservatives are animated about Hoffman is because he represents a return to fiscal conservatism. The big problem with Scozzafava is that she wasn’t socially or fiscally conservative, which is why all of us could credibly argue that she was no better than the Democrat. Many moderate Republicans are fiscally conservative, though; to the extent that a Hoffman win reorients the GOP towards a fiscal litmus test rather than a social one, it’ll actually end up expanding the tent by creating room for libertarian types who adamantly oppose expanding government while, for example, supporting civil unions or gay marriage.

As for how it benefits the Blue Dogs, let Altmire connect the dots. Now that Virginia’s gone with the wind and NY-23 and Jersey are on the brink, they’ve obviously got more leverage on ObamaCare. No wonder MoveOn’s starting to grumble about primary challenges. Why, if I didn’t know better, I’d say this looked eerily like … a civil war:

MoveOn.org is sending out emails today seeking more contributions for its campaign to defeat any Democratic senator who does not fully support Obamacare. Yesterday the left-wing activist group asked members to contribute “to a primary challenge against any Democratic senator who helps Republicans block an up-or-down vote on health care reform.” Today, MoveOn reports that it has received $2 million in pledges in less than 24 hours. “It’s a clear sign of how angry progressives would be at any Democrat who helps filibuster reform,” MoveOn executive director Justin Ruben writes in the new email.

“The larger the war chest we can offer a potential challenger, the stronger the signal we’ll send to conservative Democrats,” Ruben continues. “So we’re setting a huge new goal: $3 million in total pledges by the end of the week. That’s plenty to launch a serious primary challenge.”

Your fun fact of the day, which simply couldn’t come at a better time: According to the new Rasmussen, those who say Bush is responsible for the economy versus those who say Obama is responsible is down to a measly 49/45 split. By the end of the year that’ll be reversed. Vote wisely, Blue Dogs. Click the image to watch.

altmire