Sweet — but trustworthy?
What is particularly striking in the results is the declining support for Obama in favor of Clinton over successive days in which respondents were questioned.
On the first day of the survey, Clinton held a 2 percent lead — 45 percent to 43 percent, despite a 20-point lead for Obama among male respondents. Each day, more respondents supported Clinton.
By the last day of polling, Clinton took 4 percent lead among men — 45 percent to 41 percent — representing a staggering 24-point swing.
The poll was taken over five days starting on April 25, the day of the Moyers/Wright interview. Among men, Obama led 54/34. The next day it had swung six points, to 48/40, and the day after that held steady at 48/39. Then, on April 28, the day of Wright’s speech at the National Press Club, another big shift — dead even at 44. And then on the 29th, the day of Obama’s presser, it settled at 45/41 for Hillary. Interestingly, she actually lost two points among women during this span, but that’s within the margin of error. Question: How to explain it? They don’t provide any daily crosstabs by race, but if there was similar movement on that count they surely would have flagged it. What is it about Wright that’s alienating men but not women?
I checked RCP to compare the gender numbers here with the other most recent polls but Rasmussen’s crosstabs are behind a reg wall. PPP’s latest, conducted on April 27-28, doesn’t provide daily tracking either, but it’s interesting to note that their numbers were about the same for those days as the Indy Channel’s were: 46/44 for Obama among men, compared to 44/44 for IC. He might actually be cratering here, although reserve judgment for now: Unless I misread it, the IC poll undersampled men considerably, 33/67. Their final numbers as of April 29 might be correct but the initial April 25 figures, using a very small sample, might have wildly overestimated Obama’s male support.
Exit question: Why is Northwestern really rescinding Wright’s honorary degree? Is it because they’re genuinely worried about a media circus, or is it because now that the Messiah has rescinded his own approval of him Wright’s officially a Bad Guy in liberal circles?