I don’t mean “safe” in the sense of “Will he massage my neck and sniff my hair?” I mean “safe” as in “Can I still win my election if Republicans run ads showing the two of us together?”
Biden’s job approval may have recovered to the point where Democrats downballot can now risk a photo op with him on a situation by situation basis rather than avoiding him as if he had some strange new killer strain of COVID. His rating is sitting at around 42 percent, one of the few times this calendar year that he’s been that high. You wouldn’t want to be caught hanging out with him wearing matching Ray-Bans, but standing over his shoulder while he opens a new factory somewhere?
Sure, that might be okay at 42 percent.
He notched 45 percent approval in the new poll that CBS published over the weekend. The last time he saw that number in any poll from any pollster was early May. He’s more like political cooties now than political cancer.
A few brave Democrats will dare to share a stage with him at upcoming events. Gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro and House Rep. Matt Cartwright will attend his event today in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, while Rep. Tim Ryan is planning to appear alongside him this coming Friday. That’s not because any of them are suddenly keen to associate themselves with Biden but rather because they’re keen to associate themselves with the specific themes of the events Biden is planning. The Wilkes-Barre rally is about preventing crime, a sensitive topic for Shapiro as he faces a law-and-order Republican nationalist in the general election while shootings in Philadelphia are skyrocketing. And the Friday event in Ohio will mark the groundbreaking for Intel’s new semiconductor factory, a direct result of the CHIPS Act that recently passed Congress. Ryan has calculated that showing up to take credit for that will do him more good than being seen with Biden will do him harm.
Even a guy with a 42 percent approval rating, who’s no one’s idea of a dynamic speaker, brings a ton of media with him when he blows into town, after all. Ryan needs Ohio’s Republican majority to think of him whenever they think of those new Intel jobs in order to have a chance at winning his Senate race this fall. Relatedly, Pelosi complained to Biden when he initially scheduled a signing ceremony for the Inflation Reduction Act on a day when the House was in recess and most members of Congress were out of town. Again, it’s not so much that House Dems wanted to be seen with the president as that they’re now willing to be seen with the president provided that it’s in a particular context that obviously benefits them. He’s no longer an avoid-at-all-costs pariah. It’s more of an avoid-at-most-costs vibe now.
NBC compares his current status to that of an in-law, “always welcome but seldom wanted.” Many Democrats still aren’t willing to be seen with him, including John Fetterman. Fetterman is skipping the Wilkes-Barre event, supposedly because he’s miffed that Biden hasn’t moved yet to decriminalize marijuana. But in reality, the last thing he needs while he’s running a campaign in Pennsylvania as a quasi-independent populist whom many Trump voters seem to like is a photo op with Brandon.
“Nobody’s unhappy that Biden got some things done and that inflation seems to be easing a little bit, and maybe he’s not as dead in the water as it seemed six or eight months ago,” said Wisconsin-based pollster and strategist Paul Maslin. “But let’s not kid ourselves: This is still a country where almost 80% of the people think that things are headed on the wrong track.”…
“I don’t think there’s any Democrat in a competitive district who is clamoring for Biden to come,” said an aide to a high-profile Democrat in a tough race. “The White House wants to show that they’re back or whatever, but there’s just a disconnect.”…
The best way for Biden to help Democrats as they try to hold on to their House majority and control of the Senate is to raise money for the party and stay out of their way on the campaign trail, said several Democratic insiders who spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid angering the White House.
Yeah, official presidential visits might be an exception to the “stay away” rule since Dems can spin their attendance at those as a matter of respect for the office and sincere concern about the policy that inspired the visit. It’s the rah-rah campaign rallies with Biden that will be harder to justify. We won’t see many of those this fall.
One last note on Shapiro. He may feel more comfortable appearing with Biden than we might assume because he’s getting some cover on the right in the form of support from Republicans who oppose Doug Mastriano. A number of GOPers announced their support for Shapiro this morning, in fact, including former Bush DHS chief Michael Chertoff. Shapiro is gambling that center-right voters who might hold his appearance with Biden against him will feel reassured by his Republican backers and will opt for him over Mastriano anyway. There aren’t many Democrats who’ll find themselves in that position this fall.
