Man, I did not see this one coming.

But it makes sense politically. Johnson is on the ballot this fall in Wisconsin, a 50/50 state that tipped narrowly blue in 2020. He’s likely to face left-wing Mandela Barnes, leaving more space in the middle of the electorate than Johnson probably anticipated would be available before this campaign begin. Backing the House gay marriage bill is a small concession to swing voters, depriving his Democratic opponent from using the issue against him this fall.

This makes five Senate Republicans in favor of the bill, by the way, with Johnson’s support a surprise to literally everyone. Democrats stand a real chance now of getting the 10 they need to pass this thing.

In his statement, Johnson referenced the landmark Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Court decision that legalized same-sex marriage in 2015.

“Prior to the Obergefell v. Hodges Supreme Court decision on gay marriage, I supported civil unions,” Johnson said in the statement. ” After Obergefell, I considered the issue settled.

“Unlike Roe v. Wade, I do not see any scenario in which the Supreme Court would overturn Obergefell. The Respect for Marriage Act is another example of Democrats creating a state of fear over an issue in order to further divide Americans for their political benefit. Even though I feel the Respect for Marriage Act is unnecessary, should it come before the Senate, I see no reason to oppose it.”

I wonder how much influence Tammy Baldwin had over his vote. I have no sense of what their relationship is like, but she’s his colleague from Wisconsin, is leading the effort to woo Republicans to support it, and is openly gay. Maybe Baldwin lobbied Johnson successfully. Or maybe he figured that Baldwin could do some damage to him on this issue on the campaign trail for Barnes if he stood in the way of the bill passing.

As I say, that makes five. The other four are Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski (probably), Thom Tillis, and Rob Portman. I thought Richard Burr, Tillis’s colleague from North Carolina, might also vote yes. I was wrong about that too:

Burr says he’s a no on the gay marriage bill

— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) July 21, 2022

But there are multiple possibilities for five more votes still in play:

Ernst said today she's "visited with a number of members about it"

"I'm hearing from Iowans and keeping an open mind."

Heard from constituents "from all across the spectrum" regarding the bill

— Igor Bobic (@igorbobic) July 21, 2022

Here’s the one that really blows my mind. If you think Johnson is a surprise, hold onto your hat:

Tommy Tuberville on whether he supports gay marriage: “Yeah, if that’s what you want to do fine.”

— Christian Hall (@christianjhall) July 20, 2022

A conservative from Alabama helping to put legal gay marriage over the top in the Senate would be mind-bending. We’ll see if Tuberville gets cold feet, but if he doesn’t, this bill could pass surprisingly comfortably. The more political cover is provided by conservative Republicans and the more likely it is that 60 votes are assured, the less incentive holdouts will have to vote no for electoral reasons. If Joni Ernst, say, is on the fence, she can now vote yes and remind righties back home in Iowa that even figures as MAGA as Johnson and Tuberville went all-in on gay marriage.

Not all senators from purple states who are on the ballot this fall are following Johnson’s lead, though. An interesting episode:

“You probably would have loved to be on the elevator to see the exchange after," Baldwin told me today, adding: "of course I did" speak to him about the remark. 
 
"I said that, ‘The recent Supreme Court decision eroded a constitutional right to privacy.”

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) July 21, 2022

Baldwin would not say if she was offended by his remark.
 
"We're not going to get into (that)," Baldwin said. "I’m counting votes.” She predicted there would be 10 GOP votes to break a filibuster

— Manu Raju (@mkraju) July 21, 2022

Even going back upwards of a decade, Floridians have overwhelmingly supported gay marriage, but Rubio already knows from experience that voters there don’t hold his opposition to the practice against him. He won reelection easily in 2016 and is likely to win easily again in November. His state is a bit more Republican than Johnson’s too, raising the price of reaching for the middle.

But I think the chief reason Rubio continues to oppose SSM is because, like Ted Cruz, he’ll never let go of his presidential dream. He probably believes that he would have won the nomination in 2016 if not for Trump’s entrance into the race and that he stands a better chance than most of winning it in the future as someone who might be able to build on the GOP’s gains among Hispanics to a degree few other Republicans can. So he’s prioritizing protecting his right flank over supporting something that has 70+ percent support in national polling. It’ll take more than one crushing primary humiliation to convince the man that he’s never going to be president.

Exit question: How many Republican votes will the gay marriage bill get in the Senate? The over/under is 11.