Many aspects of the fallout from Roe being overturned were predictable. Democrats would rage about Court-packing; demand for abortion medication would skyrocket; ambitious red-state governors would move towards total bans; ambitious blue-state governors would pledge expanded access. It was all foreseeable, and foreseen.

I didn’t anticipate the extent to which Dems would turn on each other, though. Granted, they’re famous for forming circular firing squads, but I thought the end of abortion rights would be different because of their shared incentive to use the ruling to galvanize voters ahead of the midterms. Here was an issue on which virtually the entire party could and presumably would unite, sensing an urgent threat to other substantive due process rights like contraception and gay marriage. After the internecine battles over Build Back Better, Democrats would finally have a clear culture-war fight around which all sides of their coalition could coalesce.

Three weeks removed from the ruling, however, the bottom is falling out of the president’s approval rating as liberals rage at how powerless they feel despite their control of the federal government. I assumed the biggest political casualty of Roe being overturned would be Republican candidates running in purple House districts. In fact, the biggest casualty — so far — is pro-choice Joe Biden.

Politico reports today that the scapegoating over Roe’s demise is trickling down into Democratic primaries too. The governor of Rhode Island has been slammed by opponents for not signing an immediate executive order guaranteeing abortion access in that state. And in Florida, Nikki Fried is using Charlie Crist’s history as a Republican against him in the gubernatorial primary. Which is a gift to Ron DeSantis: Although he’s likely to win in November either way, a well-known former governor like Crist is obviously a bigger threat to him than Fried.

“He can’t be trusted, he never fought for a woman’s right to choose,” Fried said in an interview [of Crist]. “He’s been on all sides of the issue. This is a time when we need strong advocates on an issue.”

Fried’s campaign has released a torrent of clips and mailers on social media, spotlighting Crist’s political past. That includes Crist saying he had no regrets about appointing Charles Canady to the Florida Supreme Court when he was a GOP governor. Canady, a former conservative congressman, could soon help undo state constitutional protections that were previously used by the high court to strike down abortion restrictions.

Fried’s camp, however, isn’t stopping there. While her campaign has not yet purchased any ad time, a source close to the campaign who is not authorized to discuss strategy publicly said “every Democratic primary voter will know Charlie is pro-life. 1,000 percent.”

Crist is the favorite for the nomination. If he wins and faces DeSantis, how many Democratic voters furious at seeing Roe get overturned will decide to sit out an election between two alleged pro-lifers, particularly with DeSantis already favored to win comfortably? That’s no mere academic question. The wider DeSantis’s margin of victory is this fall, the more likely he is to challenge Trump in 2024 as the “electable” Republican alternative. Fried’s abortion gambit against Crist could have national repercussions.

Of course, the other party is also being forced to feel its way forward amid internal divisions over Roe. Every Republican governor with their eye on challenging Trump will somehow need to satisfy primary voters by maximizing their state’s restrictions on abortion without scaring off general-election swing voters by pushing total bans. Even those who agree to push total state bans might not be “pure” enough in a primary, as some pro-lifers will demand that the candidates pledge to ban abortion nationally if they end up being elected president. If you’re Greg Abbott, you can’t get away with saying, “We banned it in Texas but I think each state should do what it likes.” It’s total national ban or bust, at least for some social conservatives.

David Drucker looks at the political pain ahead from the coming GOP civil war over abortion:

A Republican pollster conducting focus groups in battleground states and polling on the abortion issue said the party can win a debate with Democrats if the issue is “reasonable restrictions” versus “abortion on demand.” Even regarding legislation outlawing abortion once a fetal heartbeat is detected, Republicans can at least fight to “a draw” in contested territory.

But without exceptions for rape and incest, specifically, as is the case in multiple red states so far, roughly 30% of voters who otherwise consider themselves “pro-life” drop off and side with the Democrats on abortion, this pollster’s data show. These voters believe it’s “cruel” not to allow for those exceptions to abortion bans. “The thing that can kill us in 2024 is a purity fight in red states,” this Republican insider said…

Meanwhile, in states permitting direct voter participation in lawmaking through referendums, Republican strategists fret abortion rights advocates could use the system to supercharge Democratic turnout by placing initiatives on the ballot to sidestep GOP legislatures and governors. “Initiative and referendum states will get clobbered with massive paid campaigns that will no doubt help Democratic turnout in 2024,” cautioned a Republican operative in Arizona.

“It’s going to create major infighting in the party that ultimately leads to failed legislation that undermines support at the ballot box,” one Georgia operative told Drucker. “Key groups — women, soft Republicans, swing voters — will reconsider voting for a Republican ticket.” Right, but many base voters don’t care. They’re going to use Republican pols’ aggressiveness on abortion restrictions the way they use all political developments, as a litmus test for their leaders’ willingness to “fight” even if fighting for a total ban would be destructive for the party at the polls.

Luckily for some governors, they’re stuck working with a Democratic majority in one or both houses of the state legislature, giving them an infallible excuse to compromise:

Gov. Glenn Youngkin on CBS indicates he'd support a full abortion ban in Virginia (with exceptions for rape, incest, and health) pic.twitter.com/OOlIwfJSDG

— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) July 10, 2022

A 15-week ban won’t satisfy purists but it does satisfy a great majority of the U.S. population. Coincidentally, 15 weeks is also the term set by the new abortion law in Florida that DeSantis recently signed. The difference between DeSantis and Youngkin, though, is that DeSantis’s party controls the state legislature; he has no partisan excuse not to ban abortion outright, at least barring an adverse ruling from the Florida Supreme Court. If DeSantis decides to stick with his 15-week ban on grounds that it’s broadly popular and fitting for a state as purple as Florida, how badly does that hurt him with GOP voters in 2024? And how vigorously will Trump attack him for it, bearing in mind that Trump reportedly believes the end of Roe is a political liability for the party?