CNN: Liz Cheney has a 10% chance of being reelected according to prediction markets

Jim Lo Scalzo/Pool via AP

Via the Daily Caller, 10 percent is a ridiculous estimate.

Her odds can’t be higher than one percent, realistically.

Even that feels generous, although I suppose we should give her a one in 100 chance of prevailing simply on the strength of residual fondness for Dick Cheney among Wyoming Republicans.


These national numbers don’t bode well for victory in a Republican primary in the reddest state in the country:

A week ago I might have given her a three-percent chance of winning because of the vagaries of primary voting in Wyoming. Voters there can re-register as members of the other party on primary day and vote in that primary; conceivably, Cheney could eke out a win by combining massive turnout among Democrats in her favor with a solid base of support among centrist Republicans. But even in the best of circumstances, pulling that off would be the political equivalent of a royal straight flush. Per NRO, “there are 197,868 registered Republicans in the state of Wyoming, 44,643 registered Democrats, and 35,324 registered independents.” In other words, the state is so lopsidedly Republican that even if every Democrat and independent turned out for the GOP primary, re-registered, and voted for Cheney, she’d still need a solid 30 percent of Republicans to win. A three-percent chance is frankly optimistic in those circumstances.

But now that Tom Rice, another pro-impeachment GOPer, has faced Republican voters in his South Carolina district and been crushed, it’s down to one percent at best. Rice’s district isn’t as red as Cheney’s and he hasn’t antagonized Trump nearly as much as she has, and he still couldn’t crack 25 percent in his district. My guess is Cheney is staring at a 50-point margin of defeat in her primary or thereabouts. And as David Axelrod says in the clip, every day there’s a televised January 6 committee hearing, the margin probably grows by a few votes.


Cheney does get a consolation prize, though: Those watching the January 6 hearings have grown more supportive of what the committee is doing. Even Republicans.

Independents are +40 in favor of the committee. Another poll, this one from Navigator, also finds solid support:

From the moment she decided to vote for impeachment and speak out against Trump, Cheney implicitly made a bargain. The bargain was that she’d sacrifice her career in return for ultimately ending Trump’s. Half of that bargain will be fulfilled when Wyoming holds its primary. Whether the other half is fulfilled depends on voters in 2024. But she’s doing what she can via the January 6 hearings to make sure that it is.

Meanwhile, though, the ranks of pro-impeachment Republicans keep getting thinner. The latest to face trouble in his district is Peter Meijer of Michigan, arguably the bravest of the 10 to impeach inasmuch as he’s a freshman and had to take a potentially career-ending vote on just his 10th day on the job. He voted the right way. And now he must pay.

A poll released in February by Impact Research showed that half of likely Republican voters in Meijer’s district had an unfavorable view of the congressman. Only 34 percent viewed him favorably.

Furthermore, in a matchup with [John] Gibbs, Meijer received only 19 percent of the vote, compared with 37 percent for his Trump-backed challenger. Other contenders garnered a combined 6 percent, while 38 percent of the respondents were undecided. Four hundred likely GOP voters were surveyed in the poll, which had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percent.


The punchline is that Meijer’s district leans blue, having preferred Biden to Trump by 11 points in 2020. One Dem poll shows that when Meijer is matched against the Democratic nominee there, he trails by just two. When Gibbs is matched against the Democratic nominee, he trails by nine. Republicans may well fart away a House seat this fall by depriving themselves of the advantage of incumbency, all to punish one of the very few members of Congress who puts his country’s interests first.

The hard lesson for Cheney and Meijer is that you can’t get reelected as an anti-insurrectionist in a party full of insurrection apologists.

Speaking of which, watch the clip below of Ted Cruz reading Cheney and Adam Kinzinger out of the GOP for refusing to whitewash January 6. There’s no single person in Congress who did more to try to corrupt the transfer of power in 2020 than Cruz did. He told Trump he would argue Texas’s garbage lawsuit seeking to throw out votes in swing states if the Supreme Court agreed to hear it, which it did not. He proposed pausing certification of the electoral college for 10 days while an “audit” was conducted, a move that would have thrown the country into chaos and encouraged state legislatures to overturn their results. He later ring-led the objections in the Senate to certifying the electoral votes in states won by Biden on January 6. (“He’s with us!” said one rioter excitedly after the mob had broken into the Senate chamber and rifled through the prepared remarks on Cruz’s desk.) And then, as the icing on the cake, he groveled when Tucker Carlson demanded to know why he once called the insurrection a “terrorist attack.”


He did all of this because his civic conscience has been annihilated by his sense of ambition, a common trait among Trump-era Republicans but one rarely seen as starkly as it is in Cruz. So I’ll leave you with this prediction: As badly as Liz Cheney is going to do in her House primary, she’ll still get a *much* higher share of the vote than Cruz will in the next Republican presidential primary. Trump and/or DeSantis are going to stomp him like a goon in a MAGA hat stomping a helpless cop outside the Capitol.

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