There are only three scenarios in which this war ends reasonably well for Ukraine and two of them are long longshots. So this morning Zelensky is trying to midwife the third, a total collapse in the Russian military’s morale. The clip below is of a piece with what one of his advisors said earlier about Russia being able to hold out until May at best. Maybe that’s true, maybe it isn’t, but it’s to Ukraine’s benefit to have Russian troops in the field wondering if the ship is sinking and it’s time to head for the lifeboats.

Better to be a POW than to end up with your corpse as a war trophy on Ukrainian social media, as appears to have happened to another Russian general this morning. Even if you manage to avoid being shot or bombed, you run the risk of starving to death in the field:

In a diplomatic cable, the US relayed to its allies in Europe and Asia that China had conveyed a willingness to assist Russia, which has asked for military support. The cable did not state definitively that assistance had been provided. One official also said the US warned in the cable that China would likely deny it was willing to provide assistance.

Among the assistance Russia requested was pre-packaged, non-perishable military food kits, known in the US as “meal, ready-to-eat,” or MREs, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The request underscores the basic logistical challenges that military analysts and officials say have stymied Russian progress in Ukraine — and raises questions about the fundamental readiness of the Russian military.

If that’s true it means the great Russian army, having spent billions over the past decade on modernization, can’t feed its troops after three weeks of warfare in a country on Russia’s own border.

Retired Australian general Mick Ryan believes the Russian campaign has already “culminated” or is on the verge of doing so. The army can’t advance aggressively since it lacks the logistical support to do so. All it can do is dig in, try to hold its positions, and brutalize Ukrainian civilians from afar — and occasionally in close quarters.

12/25 But rear area security is a significant mission, and normally absorbs thousands of troops (infantry, air defence, cavalry, engineers, etc). Because the Russians have incompetently executed this mission, there have been constant ambushes against logistics convoys. pic.twitter.com/27nWxghfuQ

— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) March 14, 2022

16/25 The Russian campaign, if it has not already, is about to culminate. US doctrine defines this as (for offense) “the point at which continuing the attack is no longer possible and the force must consider reverting to a defensive posture or attempting an operational pause.”

— Major General (just retired!) Mick Ryan (@WarintheFuture) March 14, 2022

Ominously, Ryan believes that Russia can and will adapt logistically to its new strategy, portending a long war and some hard choices for NATO about how to end it. In the meantime, though, their attempts to lay siege to Kiev have sputtered, hampered by incompetence:

In interviews, Ukrainian soldiers also said they capitalized on the Russians’ own flaws, including using predictable strategies, a lack of knowledge of local terrain and even a surprising unpreparedness for a grinding conflict. Reports have surfaced on social media and on battlefields of Russian soldiers running out of food, water and gas for their vehicles. Some have reportedly surrendered after they got lost or due to low morale. Russian military convoys have slowed down or halted due to mechanical failures.

“Ukraine’s main game is a game for time,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the Center for Naval Analyses. “To try to do something else is going to waste a lot of military potential they have available. Are they in a position to drive Russians forces out of Ukraine? No. Are they in a position to win the war? Yes.”…

So far, Ukraine’s defenders have blocked Russia’s primary effort: encircle and seize the capital, using the airfield in Hostomel as an air bridge for more tanks, armored vehicles and other weaponry. Ukrainian forces have shot down several Russian helicopters and so far prevented a major Russian armored column from pressing into the capital. Meanwhile, a solid air-defense system has been mobilized against airstrikes and missile attacks.

“Begging for Chinese food kits, trying to scrape up some Syrian mercenaries and Russian prison wardens to fight, losing high-ranking generals every other day… Russia is facing a full-fledged military disaster in Ukraine now,” tweeted a reporter for the Kyiv Independent. Could be. If the estimates of 6-8,000 Russian troops KIA are accurate, it would suggest total casualties in the range of 25-30,000, approaching 15 percent of Russia’s total combat force of 190,000. Thirty percent casualties is the point at which an army’s effectiveness is expected to break down. Zelensky’s video today is an obvious bid to speed up the process by encouraging anxious Russian troops to desert en masse.

Is a new offensive in the south about to begin, though?

***BREAKING***

Substantial #Russian Navy force, including landing ships, advancing on Odessa area today. Seen 09:47 UTC in satellite imagery

Found together with @detresfa_ pic.twitter.com/sDdZHDPJ1r

— H I Sutton (@CovertShores) March 15, 2022

Odessa has been waiting nervously for weeks for Russia to make its move. Defense analyst Michael Kofman thinks the Russians may get more than they bargained for there too: “Just looking at where Russian ground forces are, which is not substantially past Mykolaiv, I’m skeptical any landing off of Odesa would work out. Not much they can link up with.” Retired Gen. Mark Hertling adds, “Any smart commander would NOT open a 2d front (in this case, a 5th one) when others are stalled. Especially a beach assault, one of the toughest missions there is.” Would the Russian command really dare risk sending an underwhelming force into Odessa without reinforcements available nearby? Based on their conduct of the war so far … yeah, it seems totally plausible that they would do that.

Here’s Zelensky. Stick around to the end for a rousing call for … tax reform!

In a new address overnight, Zelensky spoke directly to Russian soldiers, in Russian: “You will not take anything from Ukraine. You will take lives… But your lives will also be taken. But why should you die? What for? I know that you want to survive.” pic.twitter.com/Vf774OKufF

— Christopher Miller (@ChristopherJM) March 15, 2022