You can critique this result several ways. It’s an internal poll so we shouldn’t put much stock in it. And not only is it an internal poll, it’s a poll that’s loading the dice by emphasizing the fact that Trump has endorsed David Perdue. Georgia Republicans won’t see that on their ballot when they go to vote on primary day.

And meanwhile, Brian Kemp has an internal poll of his own showing him leading Perdue big — at least until Trump is mentioned.

Whatever the true state of the race might be, though, I can’t see how Kemp ends up pulling it out. In a party that’s become a personality cult, what argument can he make that will convince cult members to choose him over the alternative backed by the leader? It’d be one thing if Kemp and Perdue were each on good terms with Trump and Trump simply preferred Perdue; MAGA voters might be willing to support a Trump-approved candidate over a Trump-endorsed one, as they did when they chose Roy Moore over Trump’s preference, Luther Strange, in the 2017 Senate runoff in Alabama.

But how does Team Kemp convince them to support a Trump-despised candidate over a Trump-endorsed one?

Here’s how Tony Fabrizio’s poll for Team Perdue shakes out. “Informed” is the result when respondents are told that Trump is backing Perdue:

Kemp’s internal poll has him leading Perdue by the implausible margin of 54-22 — until respondents are informed that Trump supports Perdue, at which point Kemp’s lead shrinks to 43/39. Trump and Perdue will spend plenty of time and money over the next six months making sure every Republican in Georgia knows that Trump loves Perdue and hates Kemp. So tell me, how does Kemp get from 43 percent to 50.1?

Is this the way? Here’s his first attack ad against Perdue:

Kemp was on Fox News on Friday and launched another harsh attack against Perdue, this time needling him for losing to Jon Ossoff in this year’s Senate runoffs and pointing out that he’s never been a “stop the steal” true believer:

“Well, the guy I guess can’t get over the fact that he lost to a 33-year-old nobody and is trying to find blame on anybody and he’s not being truthful with people.”

Kemp said that while Perdue has been “playing golf for nine months,” he signed into law the state’s Election Integrity Act.

“You know, his campaign and his lawyers, they could’ve been in the courtroom if he saw these things going on. They could’ve challenged the election. They could’ve asked for a recount. He’s just out to blame other people. I’m not doing that.”

In the ad and in Kemp’s comments to Fox, you can see the outlines of the strategy he intends to follow:

1. Never attack Trump.

2. Remind MAGA fans repeatedly that Perdue lost to Ossoff, knowing how much of Trump’s mystique rests on the fact that he’s supposedly the ultimate winner.

3. Present Kemp as the true “America First” candidate by tearing down Perdue’s “America First” credibility.

I think it could work for him — again, if this were a race between two Republicans of whom Trump approved. But Kemp won’t convince Georgians that he’s the real MAGA guy in the race when the MAGA leader is out on the trail insisting that David Perdue is. Republican voters won’t care that Perdue doesn’t have an “America First” business record or that Kemp’s done a good job in office. They’ll do what the leader wants them to do.

Besides, Trump will argue that any governor who’d certify Joe Biden’s victory can’t possibly believe in putting America First. And that pitch will work like a charm. More from Fabrizio’s poll:

This is the insuperable obstacle for Kemp. It’s not just that Trump hates him, it’s that he crossed Trump on the issue that’s been elevated to the status of supreme Republican litmus test. By certifying Biden’s win, Kemp will be deemed as having undermined all three prongs of his own strategy. He “attacked” Trump by refusing to overturn the election for him. He presided over a supposedly corrupt electoral system, which means Georgians can’t trust that Perdue really did lose legitimately to Ossoff. And he betrayed America by letting Joe Biden ascend to the presidency.

The entire race will inevitably become a referendum on whether Republicans believe Trump was cheated out of a rightful victory, as that’s the only real point of contention between Kemp and Perdue/Trump. Perdue knows it too, which is why he leaned into that angle in his announcement video. A strong majority of righties in Georgia and nationally have been BSed into believing that Trump won and, that being so, they’ll have little choice but to conclude that Kemp conspired in a grievous fraud. How does Kemp overcome that? I’m looking for scenarios but I can’t muster one.