If you thought I wasn’t serious when I said I’m going to blog all of the terrible New Hampshire polls for Warren this year because they amuse me so, let me show you again just how serious I am.
Familiarity breeds contempt, it’s said. New Hampshire is very familiar with Elizabeth Warren.
That’s a real achievement for a presidential hopeful among a neighboring state’s electorate. You might wonder if perhaps it’s just a function of name recognition: After all, since New Hampshirites know Warren better than any other candidate except Biden and Bernie Sanders, it’s natural that they might have stronger feelings about her generally, both positive and negative.
It’s a solid theory. But they don’t have strong positive feelings about her. On the contrary:
Most New Hampshire Democrats couldn’t pick Beto O’Rourke out of a line-up, I’d bet. He’s still pulling three times Warren’s total in the “most likable” contest.
Add all of that up and she’s stuck in fourth place (again) in the topline poll for Democratic nominee, pulling seven percent against the growing field. Biden and Bernie are considerably ahead for the moment thanks to their fame (26 and 22 percent, respectively) but Warren’s pretty famous too locally and she’s still a few points behind Kamala Harris (10 percent) and only a few ahead of Amy Klobuchar (four percent), who’s all but anonymous. This is the worst showing for Warren in five surveys of New Hampshire by the same pollster over the last 18 months. She was at 17 percent in their last poll, taken in August, but has shed more than half of that support to rivals like Harris and O’Rourke as they’ve launched their candidacies or moved towards doing so. Nor is she top-tier among voters’ second-choice candidates, finishing in fourth there too.
It’s plausible that as Klobuchar, Cory Booker, and Beto O’Rourke start putting in more face time in NH that Warren might slide to … seventh.
If Warren fans are looking for glimmers of hope, they might note that this poll has a tiny sample size and apparently overcounts young voters, which could mean that Bernie’s number is inflated and Warren’s is deflated. (She polled better with older voters in another recent poll than with the general population.) But bear in mind that most of the candidates who are just now introducing themselves to New Hampshirites are superficially likable and thus more likely to pick up some momentum than the already well-known Warren is. Booker is charming when he’s not pandering, O’Rourke nearly won a Senate seat in Texas on the basis of charisma, and Klobuchar has an air of pleasant “Minnesota nice” competence when she’s not throwing knives at her interns or whatever. Who would you bet on to gain ground in the next three months of NH polling, them or Warren?
Speaking of which, via the Free Beacon, here’s the Democrat most casual voters would probably most like to have a beer with reminding everyone that not only does he not drink, he doesn’t have even a fifth-grader’s farking knowledge of what goes into a margarita.
Oh, before I forget: Congratulations to Kirsten Gillibrand, who’s tied with Pete “Who?” Buttigieg in today’s poll at one percent.