There’s an easy way to predict news in 2018. Think of the most wrenching, socially divisive outcome you can imagine to any particular sequence of events. Got it? Well, that’s the outcome we’re most likely to end up with. For instance, what’s the worst possible outcome in next week’s House election from the standpoint of keeping the government running? Why, a very narrow majority for either party that paralyzes the chamber and makes it all but impossible to pass even basic funding bills, right?

Then that’s the outcome you should be wagering on this weekend.

By the same token, what’s the worst possible outcome at the border once the caravan arrives? Easy: A bloody melee in which Americans end up taking rocks and bottles to the head and respond by firing bullets into a crowd of advancing illegals to stop them.

So, one way or another, that’ll probably end up happening now.

Well … no, not really, even though the president seems okay with it. And he’s right that some in the caravan have thrown rocks and bottles at Mexican police. But American troops aren’t about to start gunning down unarmed illegals, just as American cops don’t typically open fire on crowds of anarchist dirtbags when they start flinging rocks and molotov cocktails during “demonstrations.” James Hasson, a veteran, is right that it’s an insult to the military to think they’d comply:

https://twitter.com/JamesHasson20/status/1058119506327822336
https://twitter.com/JamesHasson20/status/1058119511285555201

They’d use tear gas and rubber bullets if it came to that, like Mexican police did. Meanwhile, Bill Kristol is *probably* right that Trump is just being a blowhard about this:

Presumably it’s a bit of exaggeration in the name of deterrence, to make the caravan crowd think twice before trying to enter the U.S. Although one never really knows. If border forces used non-lethal force in a confrontation, what are the odds that a new NYT story would bubble up the next day about Trump chewing out Mattis and Kirstjen Nielsen for being too “soft”? Forty percent? Can’t be worse than 30.

Speaking of probabilities, your exit question: When this issue is polled, what will the national split be on whether to shoot illegals coming across? Something like 65/35 against, right?

Asked if he envisions the US military firing at migrants at the border, President Trump says: "I hope not."

"I will tell you this, anybody throwing stones, rocks … we will consider that a firearm, because there's not much difference when you get hit in the face with a rock." pic.twitter.com/mnsc56EFT7

— NBC News (@NBCNews) November 1, 2018