A little 2016 cloak-and-dagger for you in case you missed it this past weekend.

Republican strategist Karl Rove helped set up a meeting between top fundraisers for Ben Carson and casino mogul Steve Wynn.

Rove confirmed to Bloomberg Politics that he acted as the go-between for the Carson camp and Wynn, a sometimes business competitor of Donald Trump, the rival Carson has been batting all fall for the Republican nomination…

“Karl Rove is at the center of the GOP establishment—fearful of what real leadership in Washington D.C. will accomplish,” said Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski in a statement when asked about Rove’s role in facilitating the meeting between Carson and Wynn. “Mr. Trump continues to expose the all-talk, no action politicians propped up by their dark money super PACs that have failed the American people for far too long.” Rove helped found one of the pioneering dark money groups, Crossroads GPS, which as a non-profit does not have to disclose the identities of its donors.

Rove admits that he introduced Wynn to Team Carson but claims he isn’t involved beyond that. Hmmmm. Adding to the suspicion here, Wynn has already donated $25,000 this year to … Chris Christie’s Super PAC. Why would a guy who leans towards Christie’s brand of centrist Republicanism be interested in talking to a religious conservative like Carson who isn’t expected to contend outside of Iowa?

Let me quote, er, myself. This is from November 13th:

Which means, if I’m right, that Carson’s the man the establishment should be supporting in Iowa. The answer to the riddle of who can defeat the outsiders in the race may be “one of the outsiders themselves.” If Carson wins Iowa, it’s a heavy blow to Cruz and it’s striking evidence that Trump isn’t invincible after all. It leaves New Hampshire wide open. Even if Trump goes on to win there, that still avoids Beltway Republicans’ nightmare scenario of having one of the outsiders win both of the first two states, meaning that there’d still be time for the center-right to unite behind Rubio or Bush in time for South Carolina. As a bonus, Carson winning Iowa would make him more competitive in the “SEC primary” on March 1st, where Cruz is expecting to clean up. Having those two plus Trump splintering the “outsider” vote among them is just what Rubio needs to win with the center-right coalescing behind him. Long story short, I think Carson’s success is mostly upside for the Republican establishment unless and until he somehow becomes a real threat to win the nomination — for instance, if he shocked everyone by winning Iowa and then winning New Hampshire a week later. The less likely you think that is, the more you should be cheering for him if your real goal is to see a more traditional candidate from the center-right nominated.

A guy like Rove has two priorities in this race: Stop Trump and stop Cruz. Your best play to do that is to help Ben Carson in Iowa, knowing that Trump and Cruz would both see their prestige suffer if they lose that state. Cruz thinks he’s destined to win Iowa for lots of good reasons — he’s the best organized there, he’s lining up all the right endorsements, he’s got the evangelical cred that’s traditionally necessary to take the caucuses. Trump thinks he’s destined to win because he’s ahead in the polls and, well, because he’s Trump. If instead Carson wins, both Trump and Cruz suddenly look overrated and vulnerable. And since Carson almost certainly won’t win NH, that leaves a center-rightie like Rubio or Wynn’s guy Christie superbly positioned to break from the pack and take that state. Without Carson winning Iowa, the GOP establishment is faced with two nightmare scenarios. If Cruz wins IA, he instantly becomes a favorite in the southern primaries and is almost certainly in the race until late spring, and maybe even all the way to the convention. And if Trump then wins New Hampshire a week later, the race will boil down to Cruz vs. Trump — the worst possible outcome for Beltway Republicans. If Trump wins IA, then there’s a fair chance he rolls into NH and wins that state too, and suddenly Trump has loads of momentum and is a heavy favorite to win the nomination. The sooner both of those guys can be dispatched, the better off establishmentarians will be. And the soonest they can be dispatched is if they both lose Iowa. That leaves Ben Carson, the only other top contender there right now, as their best shot. Which means you can expect some more “surprising” meetings between Team Carson and major Republican donors over the next two months.

I think Erick Erickson’s right, though, that for Rove this is more about stopping Cruz than stopping Trump. When pressed, most GOP consultants still believe that Trump will falter if/when the party is offered a binary choice between him and someone else. Even in the nightmare scenario described above, where Trump wins both Iowa and New Hampshire, that still leaves 48 states (plus territories) to decide between Trump and whomever center-righties hurriedly unite behind for the nomination. Even in Trump’s best polls, he’s pulling only one-third of Republican voters; odds are good that most of the other two-thirds are leery of him and will probably tilt towards someone else if forced to choose. To put it another way, given the gigantic amount of media coverage Trump’s gotten this year, the GOP race is already to some extent a referendum on Trump. If you’re not on Team Trump by now, chances are you have a good reason not to be. Cruz is a bigger threat because there’s no telling what his ceiling might be. In theory he can unite tea partiers, social conservatives, and Trump-style populists; he’s also showed impressive organizational discipline and more formidable fundraising than expected. It’s hard to imagine Trump hanging around in the race for long and enduring serial defeats if he loses a bunch of states early but there’s every reason to think Cruz is in it for the long haul, piling up delegates in red states and picking off what he can in bluer states. If Cruz is playing the long game then having Carson in the race for as long as possible is crucial to people like Rove. Carson might not win anywhere, but he can steal some of Cruz’s delegates in the early states by hanging in there at 10-15 percent — which may be enough, if the primaries are as close as everyone thinks, to give the edge to some center-right contender. Carson, as the one “outsider” candidate among the big three with no realistic path to the nomination, essentially becomes a stalking horse for the establishment in this scenario. Whether he realizes it or not.

But what if Carson can’t hack it? What if his support collapses almost entirely and he drops out early? In lieu of an exit question, consider this freaky deaky possibility: We may arrive at the point where people like Rove want Trump to stay in the race because Trump is eating up enough of Cruz’s support to play the same stalking-horse role for the center-right that they want Carson to play. If Trump sinks to 15 percent, that’s low enough to not have to worry about him winning any states but high enough for him to hurt the chances of whoever the second choice of Trump fans is. And given how important immigration is, that second choice in a Cruz/Rubio battle would almost certainly be Cruz.