Crumble: Wendy Davis trails by 16, down two among women, leads by just two with Latinos

Via Sean Davis, it’s a comfort to know that if everything else goes to hell on election night — Hagan holds on, Georgia breaks for Nunn, Grimes stuns McConnell in Kentucky — we’ll still have the satisfaction of watching one of the left’s abortion heroes crash and burn in Texas.

Red, red state, I know. but trailing with women? What about those pink sneakers?

Among men, Abbott holds a 61-32 lead in this survey. And he leads by 2 percentage points — 48 to 46 — among women.

Abbott leads among likely voters who dropped out of high school all the way up to those with post-graduate degrees. Davis leads with voters who said they never attend church services, but Abbott leads with every group that did, no matter how frequently or infrequently. With Anglo voters, he holds a 62 percent to 31 percent advantage. Davis leads 75 to 19 among black voters and narrowly — 48 to 46 — among Hispanic voters.

“It should be a really interesting, contentious race,” said Daron Shaw, a government professor at UT-Austin and co-director of the poll. “And yet, it doesn’t seem to have penetrated the public consciousness. Certainly, nothing down-ballot has.”

Actually, if you go back to the last Texas Tribune poll in June, you’ll see that she’s made up some ground among women over the past four months. She trailed by 10 at the time; now she’s almost even. Her problem, obviously, is that she needed a gigantic gender gap to make this race competitive. To the extent that any Democrat in Texas thought it was winnable rather than just a platform for Davis to boost her media profile, her abortion filibuster and her working-mom biographical narrative were supposed to be the building blocks for a tidal wave of support among women voters. As it is, she’s not even leading among that demographic. Meanwhile, Abbott has expanded his lead among men from 14 points in June to the enormous 29-point advantage that he enjoys now. Go figure that a Democrat who became a national liberal star with a splashy filibuster on a core liberal issue is kryptonite to men in Texas.

Here’s the trend in her and Abbott’s favorable ratings:


Says Sean Davis, digesting the results, “The more people learn about Wendy Davis, the less they like her.” True enough. Granted, while her unfavorable rating is up 13 points since last October, Greg Abbott’s is also up 10, which may be inevitable in any long campaign as partisans from the other side learn more about their opponent’s nominee. What’s striking about Davis’s numbers is that she’s not seeing a commensurate rise in her favorable rating. Abbott’s favorables have increased by 11, for an overall split of 47/34. Davis’s favorables are up just three points over the past year, taking her from a split of 37/31 last October to 40/44 now. Getting undecideds in a conservative state to like you is a heavy lift for any Democrat, which is why their best bet here would have been to find a centrist, salt-of-the-earth populist. Instead they went for a Harvard Law grad turned minor feminist icon known for fighting the left’s most sacred social-issues battle. Good thinkin’.

One more shot of schadenfreude. Here’s Zac Petkanas, Davis’s communications director, trying and spectacularly failing to digest the new numbers:

Have a little sympathy for Wendy. If she’s surrounded by people like this, no wonder she’s getting blown out.

I’ll leave you with this, which was, of course, posted to YouTube by the Greg Abbott campaign. In fairness to her, she’s got nothing left to lose at this point; might as well make nice with the Democratic powers-that-be. She may just end up with a speaking slot at the “I am woman, hear me roar”-themed 2016 convention.