Might just be statistical noise over a long campaign, but that little recent dip is interesting:
I don’t know how to explain the spike halfway through the month. That represents O’s numbers between June 8-10, when his job approval stood at 50/44. Four days later, he was back to 44/49. At first I thought maybe his slide was due to the terrible May jobs report, but no, that came out on June 1. I think the spike is either just an outlier or, possibly, a backlash among Democrats to Scott Walker’s big win in Wisconsin on June 5. O’s numbers actually rose in the next two Gallup polls taken after the recall election before he started to slide again. Could be that Dems felt threatened by the GOP’s big win and momentarily rallied to Obama’s side in hopes of avenging the loss in November. Didn’t last, though. Oh well.
As for the dip in the last few days, could that be a backlash to … this? He announced the new DREAM policy on June 15; as of June 17-19, his job approval was still mostly even at 46/48 but now suddenly he’s at 43/49 today. (Today’s data runs from June 18-20 so there’d only be one day of Fast & Furious reaction built in, in case you’re thinking that’s what’s driving this. Remember too that, thanks to the media, few people outside the conservative base know much about F&F.) I don’t know — maybe it’s a blip, or maybe it’s delayed reaction to the DREAM decision as that news slowly made its way through America’s population of low-information voters. People like Mickey Kaus and Sean Trende have been warning that O’s DREAM gambit might lose him votes on balance because it’ll alienate more working-class whites than it’ll attract Latinos. This might be the first evidence that they’re right. Can’t wait to see Gallup’s numbers next week.
Meanwhile in the swing states, good news and bad news. The bad: Quinnipiac has Obama up four points in Florida, which, if you believe the CW, is supposed to turn red this year. The good: We’ve got yet another poll showing Michigan as a toss up. Four of the last five polls have put the margin at one or two points there (the only outlier, which had Obama up comfortably, was Rasmussen(!)), so yeah, this is now officially a purple state. Which means it’s time for Romney’s “Cold War” strategy to kick in:
Indeed, Republicans’ strategy to defeat Obama looks a lot like an arms race designed to exhaust the opponent, raising cash at record rates, pouring it into traditionally blue states — and forcing Chicago to burn through resources to defend its own territory.
“It’s just like the Cold War. They’re going to force Obama to spend himself into oblivion — while trying to peel off constituencies like the Eastern Bloc,” said a Democratic strategist, citing lingering vulnerability with blue collar workers and potential Republican gains with hispanics. “The only question is which [constituency] will be the first domino.”…
“There’s no way they’ll be able to keep up. Our SuperPACs are our Star Wars, if you will,” said the Republican…
“He can run deficits all he wants as president, but there is no Federal Reserve to print more money for campaigns,” Wilson added. “Republicans are just spending at a rate they can’t keep pace with, and that’s going to hurt him in November.”
I’m still not convinced that O will be outraised, especially if SCOTUS throws the left into a frenzy next week by torpedoing Obama’s big “achievement,” but if it’s true then Michigan’s going to be the northern front for the big Romney offensive. Exit question: Aren’t there any fabulously rich liberals out there willing and able to funnel tens of millions of dollars into an “Obama is the champion of the common man” campaign? Where’s Hollywood when you need them?