I wouldn’t usually blog an internal poll, especially one this dubious, but we’re desperate for tea leaves about tonight and right now this little scrap is the best we can do, alas. How dubious is it? Well, since Thanksgiving, Ron Paul has dipped below 16 percent in Iowa just once, and that one poll was based on a tiny sample of just 277 likely voters. Since then, he’s cracked 20 percent in 11 of the 12 polls taken. Gingrich, meanwhile, has never been higher than 17 percent in the last 11 polls of the state and only twice was he even that high. To believe these internal numbers are true, you have to somehow believe that (a) reports of Santorum’s momentum are overstated, (b) Gingrich’s endless whining about Romney’s attack ads over the past few days is actually helping his numbers, and (c) Paul’s going to fall flat on his face tonight despite intense enthusiasm among his supporters and an excellent local organization. Anyone think all three of those things are true?
Why, this almost seems like a calculated leak by the Gingrich camp to give his own supporters, who might otherwise have given up hope, a reason to turn out tonight. Santorum’s rosy polls lately seem to be driving his surge as more undecideds conclude that backing him wouldn’t be waste of a vote. Newt’s trying to recreate that dynamic himself, I guess. While we wait for entrance polls at the caucus sites or some other tidbit to obsessively overanalyze, here’s a long interview of Romney by Laura Ingraham on today’s show. Skip ahead to 4:30 for his reaction to Gingrich calling him a liar. Exit quotation: “I don’t know why he’s so angry.”
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