“‘There is simply no way that Republicans will nominate the man who passed Obamacare’s prototype,’ a veteran Republican political operative told me earlier this year.
“But that’s exactly what the Republican Party looks likely to do — nominate former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney…
“What happened? How did this less-than-gregarious famous flip-flopper who wrote Obamacare’s first draft become the most likely nominee?
“By default.”
“I have spent more than a year predicting the electoral demise of Mitt Romney. Here is a Mormon, once fervently pro-choice candidate running to lead an electorate whipped into a frenzied belief that Barack Obama’s health-care plan poses the most dire threat to liberty in American history, having imposed virtually the same plan in Massachusetts himself. Indeed, the economist who designed Romneycare also designed the Affordable Care Act. Romney has tried to elide the problem by citing a state-federal distinction that nobody actually cares about in practice, but even that turns out to be false, as Romney once supported the hated individual mandate at the federal level.
“And yet here he is, poised to assume the Republican nomination as Rick Perry tries to stave off a total implosion. It is as if the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination was about to fall into the hands of Paul Wolfowitz. What happened?…
“[Rick Perry] is a man who was put on Earth to defeat Mitt Romney. He is the walking embodiment of the Republican id. His disembowelment of Kay Bailey Hutchinson in the 2010 Texas gubernatorial primary is the blueprint for attacking a favored Republican from the right. Simply substitute Romney for Hutchinson and ‘Romneycare’ for ‘bailout’ and the plan could not be more promising. And yet Perry, like Pawlenty before him, has found himself unable to deliver the line. In Thursday night’s debate, with a devastating attack teed, up, he began stammering painfully, looking as though he were about to fall asleep. You have to wonder if Romney is protected by some invisible force-field, which incapacitates the brain of any foe who approaches him.”
“Indeed, for someone who still probably stands a 50%-50% chance of being the Republican Party’s presidential nominee, Mitt Romney had it relatively easy so far.
“One reason why is that he’s run for president before — and thus doesn’t feel as ‘new’ as the Michele Bachmanns and Rick Perrys. ‘There are benefits to having been a candidate previously,’ said one Republican strategist who is neutral in the GOP presidential race. ‘You have already been scrutinized.’
“Another reason is that Romney is a much better candidate than he was four years ago. “He has gotten a lot better,” the strategist adds. “Better at being able to absorb and deflect” — like he did with the health-care question in last week’s debate.
“A final reason has been the relatively late start to the GOP race, at least compared with 2008.”
“Within a week of Perry entering the 2012 field, Romney lost his front-runner status in the polls to Perry. Despite two less than stellar debate performances, Perry managed to hold on. Polling has not yet come out after his dismal third debate performance, though the Florida straw poll suggests that performance will hurt Perry.
“As long as the field remains crowded and Perry, as the guy most likely to consolidate the anti-Romney field right now, remains uninspiring and unredeemed from his last debate performance, Romney benefits. But he benefits not as the candidate who excites the base, nor the one whom the base wants to fight for, but as the candidate whose attributes no one in the grass roots wants, while the rest of the pack divides up over all the attributes the base does want.
“Romney also benefits because — since so many reporters, analysts, pundits and others presume him the nominee and since he was vetted in 2008 — the media have been less likely to dwell on his record and issues, instead choosing to focus on the new candidates…
“Romney’s vetting will now come closer to the start of the primaries, and he remains without a natural constituency, outside of the Beltway crowd that the Republican base holds in almost as much contempt as they do President Obama.”
“If Romney were to become president, the White House would arm-twist Congressional Republicans in an attempt to get them to compromise. Rank and file Republicans would be told that they have to vote for the president’s agenda, that if they don’t, it will weaken the party politically. They’ll be told if they just pass this one thing he wants, he’ll get to Obamacare and entitlement reform — eventually. They’ll be assured that soon, Romney will do something about spending. Of course, we all know that nothing would actually happen, especially with a politician like Romney.
“Thus, the only way of preventing this outcome is to elect Republicans who are driven by principle rather than a lust for power, and are willing to stand up to a president of their own party. Because Romney likes to take the the path of least resistance, Republicans in Congress will have to erect legislative barriers to him acting as a big government Republican…
“Knowing that 2012 was going to be a great opportunity, conservatives went into the primary season hoping a candidate would emerge who was untarnished by scandal, energetic, intelligent, competent, articulate, charismatic, solidly conservative, and capable of beating Obama. Though each candidate has brought various strengths and weaknesses to the race, no one candidate has truly satisfied conservatives. If Romney wins by default, a lot of conservatives will be especially disillusioned. And they’ll resent being told that they have to fall in line and campaign for the lesser of two evils. That’s why I think if Romney ends up being the nominee, Tea Partiers and conservative activists will have to turn their attention to House and Senate races, in the hopes of electing candidates that will make him govern as more of a conservative than he’d otherwise be inclined to be.”
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