“Three years ago DC pundits predicted with glee the demise of Sarah Palin’s political career. This past weekend their tune changed, citing false information that she has made a decision and set a date regarding a future campaign. Any professional pundit claiming to have ‘inside information’ regarding Governor Palin’s personal decision is not only wrong but their comments are specifically intended to mislead the American public. These are the same tired establishment political games that fuel the 24 hour news cycle and that all Americans will hopefully reject in 2012, and this is more of the “politics-as-usual” that Sarah Palin has fought against throughout her career.”

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“But when it comes to 2012, sources said, even her closest advisers do not know what her decision, or whether she has made one. Her self-imposed deadline is approaching: At the Iowa State Fair earlier this month, Palin told ABC News’ Jake Tapper that September would be ‘a drop-dead time’ for her to enter the race…

“Peter Singleton, the head of the Iowa chapter of the independently run group Organize4Palin who moved to the state almost a year ago to volunteer for the non-campaign, said he doesn’t think Palin will make an explicit announcement Sept. 3. But he believes it will be ‘clear’ from her ‘major’ and ‘important’ speech that Palin is getting into the race.

“Singleton said he thinks the speech will start a ‘conversation with the American people’ and focus on ‘who we are as a people and what’s at stake in this election and what the primary debate will be on our side.’ He said he believes the speech will ‘lay out her vision for the country, returning to the vision of the founders,’ something Palin often speaks about…

“‘People need to leave this event on Sept. 3 and know what Sarah Palin is up to. No more guessing,’ [Craig Robinson] said. ‘A lot of Iowans are convinced she is running because Peter [Singleton] has done a good job. If she doesn’t run, people will be like the people who sold their homes to buy signs warning that the end is coming and it never came. It reminds me of this Palin thing. If she doesn’t run, people will be severely disappointed.'”

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“There’s never been a candidate to get a more thorough examination by the media, the left, and the right. Sarah Palin has withstood the slings, barbs, bullets, and arrows that would have fallen a lesser person. But even that is no sure thing, given that she has become so familiar as a person to so many Republican voters that she no longer excites a sufficient number as she once did to enter the race in a strong position. 97% name recognition, 12% support, and positive intensity equivalent to Mitt Romney is not a good thing for Sarah Palin.

“I am in the ‘believe it when I see it’ camp. If Sarah Palin gets in, it will make for an even more awesome primary spectacle and will hopefully cause Jon Huntsman’s head to fully explode. What I do know for certain is that if Sarah Palin does not use the September 3rd speech to make clear which way she is headed, I think she will accelerate the number of people holding out hope who decide to go all in for a different candidate. And I don’t think those people, finally frustrated enough to give up, will come back.

“It will, however, give the media an extension on its ability to use Fred Thompson’s entry in 2008 as a useful storyline for 2012.”

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