They’re not blowing smoke here. As unlikely as it may have seemed after the highly suspicious killing of the rebels’ top general a few weeks ago, rebel forces in the field have finally broken through in Zawiya and Brega and are threatening Tripoli’s supply lines. At least one of Qaddafi’s top security aides flew the coop this week, and the rebel leadership predicted a few days ago that the man himself would finally be gone by the end of the month.
To Tunisia, though? Very odd.
Moammar Gadhafi is making preparations for a departure from Libya with his family for possible exile in Tunisia, U.S. officials have told NBC News, citing intelligence reports…
The officials could provide no further details as to conditions or precise timing for Gadhafi’s departure, NBC said, and the news report emphasized that there was no guarantee that Gadhafi would follow through on any plans to flee…
Five loud explosions shook the center of Tripoli on Thursday afternoon, possibly striking near Gadhafi’s compound. NATO jets flew overhead minutes after the blasts. It wasn’t immediately clear what was hit or if there were civilian casualties. NATO has bombarded military targets all over Libya since March when a no-fly zone was instituted…
Back in Tripoli, Prime Minister al-Baghdadi Ali al-Mahmoudi said the government was in negotiations with rebels.
Tunisia’s where the Arab Spring began, of course. When they ousted Ben Ali, they became the first country in the modern history of the region to rid themselves of their own strongman. They’re planning elections, the prime minister’s vowing to go after Ben Ali’s cronies, and they just recalled their ambassador to Syria in a show of revolutionary solidarity with the uprisings against Assad. Which makes it … very strange under the circumstances that they’d agree to take in the dictator next door. I wonder which western country’s paying them to do it. (Well, no, I don’t really wonder.)
Needless to say, this isn’t the beginning of the end of the war. Per Adam Garfinkle, it’s the end of the beginning:
There are rules in places like Libya, but they are different from the rules applied in Europe in recent centuries. The main rule when one tribe or one tribal confederacy conquers another is that the defeated party is politically, socially, economically and, often to some extent, literally decapitated. The defeat must be total, unmistakable and irreparable. That is the best way, indeed, in many cases the only way, to make sure that the rank-and-file of the defeated group will not find some way to rise up again in revenge.
Now what does this mean in the Libyan case? It means that if the rebels centered in Benghazi are going to overthrow by force of arms the Gaddafi regime, they are going to have to fight for Tripoli, possibly down to the last square block of the regime’s stronghold. Gaddafi and his tribal loyalists and allies will not surrender peaceably. There is therefore going to be, quite possibly, a crimsoned slaughter of the civilian population of Tripoli…
If the Obama Administration intervened in the first place to prevent mass murder against Libyan civilians in Benghazi—and on this point I take the Administration at its word—what will it do to prevent mass murder against Libyan civilians in Tripoli? Will NATO forces now suddenly switch sides, and begin suppressing the military activities of the Benghazi rebels it has been supporting and trying to build up for the past five months? That would be logically consistent in terms of the way the Administration does its moral reasoning; it is also completely unthinkable under present circumstances.
Even if Qaddafi leaves, a mass of loyalists bound to him by tribal ties and 40 years of totalitarian brainwashing will remain. Which means even the “cleansing” of Tripoli wouldn’t be the end of the war. For a glimpse at the true ending, which isn’t much of an “ending” at all, revisit this excellent Stephen Metz piece at TNR from March. George Will referred in passing today to “undetermined other nations [which will be] deputed to police Libya’s postwar chaos.” Any UN members eager to volunteer?
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