Open thread: Tax cuts armageddon in the House; Update: Estate tax amendment fails; Update: Final bill passes, 277-148

Am I mistaken or is this the biggest vote in the House since ObamaCare in March? Surely it’s the biggest for The One himself, whose last vestiges of prestige are on the line. As I write this, they’re in the middle of three hours of floor debate on the bill. C-SPAN says a final vote is expected at around 11 p.m., but the whole package could be dead before then if liberals somehow cobble together enough support to pass Pomeroy’s estate tax amendment. No word yet on when that vote’s scheduled, but it’s worth tuning in now to make sure you watch it come off. If the amendment passes, the White House will instantly be in War Room mode. A major subplot here: Whither the approval rating of one of the most widely reviled institutions in modern American life? If the deal collapses, I figure Congress will finally break through the 10 percent floor. If they hold it together, we might see a bounce all the way up to a breezy 20 percent. Stay tuned.

In case you get bored while you wait, via Ace, here’s Jon Stewart’s interview last night with “Michael Steele.” Hang in there until he gets to the “To-Diddle List.” And stand by for updates as the House votes come off.

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Update: Here we go on the Pomeroy amendment at a little after 11:20 p.m. If this passes, it really is armageddon for Hopenchange.

Update: At 11:37 p.m., Pomeroy’s amendment is down in flames. As I write this, it’s 190-230. All Republicans thus far have voted no, along with 59 Democrats. Not close, really; I’ll bet the Blue Dogs savored every minute of sticking it to the left after last month’s election.

Now it’s on to a vote on the final bill. With the margin on this vote this wide, there’s practically no chance that that one will fail.

Update: Final tally on Pomeroy’s amendment is 194-233. Now onto the big one.

Update: It’s a merry Christmas for The One. 225-120 as I write this, which is already more than enough for a majority with almost 100 congressmen still to vote. The GOP delivered big for Obama, with 120 yeses thus far compared to only 28 no’s. Among Democrats, it’s 114 to 96 at the moment. Stand by for the final tally and, eventually, the roll.

Update: Ed’s suggested headline on Twitter: “President Obama successfully whips Dem caucus to endorse Bush tax policy.” In fact, they’re already at 269 yeses with a few minutes left to go in the vote. Dave Weigel notes that the original Bush tax cuts passed with only 230 yeses. Progress!

Update: A total landslide as the gavel comes down: 277-148. Among Democrats, it’s 139 yea and 112 nay. Among the GOP, 138 versus just 36. Stand by for the roll to see how everyone voted.

Update: Ed notes, per the final tally, that more Democrats ended up voting to extend the Bush tax cuts than Republicans did. Progress, the sequel!

Update: The roll should be available as a link at the top of the calendar here sometime during the next hour.

Update: I think this is the roll, but the bill title is wrong. Assuming I’m right, a brief but incomplete list of prominent Republicans voting no: Michele Bachmann, Joe Barton, Jason Chaffetz, Jeff Flake, Pete Hoekstra, Steve King, Thad McCotter, Mike Pence, John Shadegg, and Joe Wilson. A few Republicans voting yes: Marsha Blackburn, John Boehner, John Boozman, Eric Cantor, David Dreier, Jeb Hensarling, Darrell Issa, Peter King, Ron Paul, Paul Ryan, and Pete Sessions. Oh, and Dennis Kucinich voted … yes.

Update: I’m hearing that that is, in fact, the correct roll. The bill title looks strange because they used an old bill as a palimpsest for this one.