“I do, however, think Democrats could end up doing better in November than the polls suggest right now for two big reasons- 1) most races right now have a lot more Democratic undecideds than Republicans and 2) the enthusiasm gap isn’t going to do anything but shrink.

“First a look at the undecideds. We have polled 14 Senate or Gubernatorial races since Labor Day. In 12 of them there are more undecided Democrats than Republicans and it’s usually by a wide margin- the average across those 14 contests is 17% more undecided Democrats than Republicans.

“GOP voters are incredibly unified this year and most Republican candidates don’t have much room to grow with their base over the final month of the campaign. There’s no guarantee that the undecided Democrats will end up coming home but more than likely they will.”

***
“Memo To: President Obama and the Democratic Party Leadership

“From: Michael Moore

“Subject: 5 Things Dems Can Do to Turn It Around by November 2.

“1. Immediate Wall-to-Wall TV Ads, Internet Videos, and Appearances Hammering Who the Hell Put Us in the Misery We’re In.
We Americans have very short attention spans (Quick: Who Won the Oscar for Best Picture last year? The World Series? Exactly.). People need to be reminded over and over that it was the REPUBLICANS who concocted and led the unnecessary invasion of two countries, putting us in our longest war ever, wars that will eventually cost us over $3 trillion. Bush & Co. also caused the biggest collapse of our economy since the Great Depression. I don’t know a single person in Hollywood who wouldn’t shoot and produce those spots for you for FREE. Dems: Do not pull a single punch on this. Quit being a bunch of wusses and let the bastards have it! The public will be astonished that you’ve found your courage and your spine. We expect you to be Muhammad Ali, not Ally McBeal.

“2. Indict the Criminals.
Announce that the Justice Department will seek indictments against both those who caused the economic collapse and those who became war profiteers. Call it for what it is: organized crime. Use the RICO statutes. Use the basic laws that make fraud of any kind a crime. Get in the face of those who stole the billions, make them pay for it—and the people will love you. We want Dirty Harry, not Dirty Dancing.”

***
“When presidents get into trouble, they often try to recapture the magic that got them elected in the first place. For Clinton, that meant distancing himself from the left. He began his presidential bid, let’s remember, as head of the Democratic Leadership Council, a group that spent the late 1980s and early 1990s at war with the party’s liberal base. And while he flirted with economic populism, what distinguished Clinton from prior Democratic candidates was his aggressive coopting of conservative themes…

“For Obama, the pattern is largely the reverse. He won the Democratic nomination by running against triangulation. Liberals felt they could trust him because unlike Hillary Clinton and John Edwards, he had ignored the centrist consultants who urged prominent Democrats to back the war in Iraq. (Significantly, Obama kept his distance from the DLC during his brief stint in the Senate). And the campaign really turned in his favor during an October 2007 debate in which Clinton refused to give a straight answer on driver’s licenses for illegal immigrants, thus confirming Democratic voters’ suspicions that she was too politically cautious to take a stand…

“My guess is that with powerful Clinton administration veterans like Summers and Emanuel gone, Obama will try to recapture the anti-establishment mojo he had in his 2008 campaign, and that rather than tacking right, he’ll try to reconnect with his liberal base by demonizing the newly empowered congressional Republicans.”