Polls: Arizona governor's approval way up, McCain's way down

Actually, these items aren’t related but I couldn’t resist tossing a bone to the Maverick-haters among us. Has McCain’s lifelong amnesty shilling caught up to him now that Arizonans are rallying behind the new immigration law? Maybe — PPP’s poll was conducted over the weekend, right after the bill was signed — but he’s actually been (cautiously) supportive of the bill. Could be that primary voters have simply grown tired of his transparent pandering, but it’s more likely that Hayworth’s campaign has succeeded in reminding them of what his record really is. And yet, and yet…

55% of voters disapprove of McCain to just 34% who give him good marks. When PPP polled Arizona in September he was at a positive 48/42 approval spread, so he’s dropped 27 points on the margin since that time. McCain’s biggest fall in popularity has come with Republicans as he’s been more aggressively challenged from the right by J.D. Hayworth. Where 65% gave him good marks last fall now just 48% do, a 17 point decline. He’s also gone down 13 points with independents (from 41% to 28%) and 11 points with Democrats (from 32% to 21%.)…

Democrats’ only real shot at winning the seat then is if Hayworth can win the primary, and we find Glassman leading Hayworth 42-39 in such a scenario. Hayworth is extremely unpopular with only 23% of voters holding a favorable opinion of him to 50% with an unfavorable one. Democrats (6/68 favorability) predictably see him in a dim light but he doesn’t do a whole lot better with independents (22/49). Republicans are evenly divided with 37% viewing him favorably and 37% unfavorably.

McCain’s approval among Republicans is only 48 percent (which is still better than Hayworth’s), but 78 percent say they’ll vote for him in the general. In fact, notwithstanding the decline in his numbers among Dems and indies, McCain still wins a hypothetical general election against Glassman by 16 points. On a day when we’re heralding the glories of strategic voting, consider this a reminder to Arizona Republicans to think carefully.

Here’s ol’ Mav on Hannity last night looking constipated while talking about the new immigration law. The most he’ll allow by way of criticism is that there are some things about it that he’d have done differently, although he’s scrupulously careful to avoid saying what those things might be. If his numbers continue to slide, though, expect him to find exciting new nuance in the law to celebrate: Since she signed it on Friday, Jan Brewer’s approval is up fully 16 points. No typo. Exit question via George Will: “Can the large majority of Arizonans who support the law be a ‘fringe’ of their state?”

Join the conversation as a VIP Member

Trending on HotAir Video