Too good to check? I’m leery of the fact that the poll finds a 49/42 spread on the question of whom the respondents voted for in 2008; the actual spread between Obama and McCain was 25 points, not seven. But (a) some of the respondents are probably feeling buyer’s remorse over Captain Hopenchange and lying about their actual vote, (b) Democratic turnout is much heavier when Obama’s at the top of the ticket than when his loser cronies have to run on their own (see, e.g., Virginia, New Jersey, and Massachusetts), (c) Peter Fitzgerald, Obama’s predecessor, was a Republican so it’s by no means impossible to see a seat in Illinois go red, and of course (d) barring an astounding economic turnaround, the climate will be conservative in November anyway. Really conservative, perhaps:
Based on the current numbers 885,268 voters were cast in the Democratic primary for Senate compared to 736,137 on the Republican side. Those numbers are awfully close to each other for a state that’s overwhelmingly Democratic.
For sake of comparison the last time there were competitive Senate primaries on both sides in Illinois, in 2004 when Barack Obama was nominated, there were nearly twice as many votes cast in the Democratic primary as the Republican one. 1,242,996 voted in the Democratic race to 661, 804 for the Republicans.
So … yeah, this is doable. Doable by 12 points? Eh. By one point? Why not?
Here’s the NRSC’s inspired new attack ad on Obama flunky Alexi Giannoulias. I think you’ll find it very extremely shockingly racist if you’re a moron who works for MSNBC.