At this point I’d be shocked if either of them mattered, but the polls have closed so here’s a new thread for results.
As I’m writing that, CNN calls Minnesota and Michigan for The One.
Update: Turns out my prediction was too conservative: I had Ohio going for McCain. Fox calls it for The One. And with that, the hour of reckoning is at hand.
Update: I said in this post over the weekend that under no circumstances could Maverick lose more than one among Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Virginia. Unless the network projections are drastically wrong, he’s already lost two. According to MSNBC, with both PA and OH in the ledger, Obama has 195 EVs with 55 still to come from California. Florida would put him over the top.
Update: Ohio’s the first red state from 2004 to flip, incidentally, and the only one Obama needs thanks to its high EV number. He can win the election now simply by holding Kerry’s states.
Update: The nets will be appropriately cautious about calling Florida early after the fiasco eight years ago but Obama’s leading steadily by 150,000-200,000 votes with 60 percent reporting and the bellwether counties don’t look good. If that flips, we’re approaching landslide territory.
Update: Obama wins New Mexico, unsurprisingly.
Update: The polls are closed now in Nevada and Montana too, but neither will matter. CNN calls Iowa for The One.
Update: With 84 percent reporting, Obama’s now ahead in Virginia by 13,000 votes.
Update: With 91 percent reporting and a lead of more than 50,000 votes, Fox hands Virginia to The One. That gives him 220 EVs, according to my tally. California will put him over the top.
Update: More blood on the floor: The Denver Post says Colorado belongs to The One. We should have a call on California from the networks within the next five minutes, and that should wrap things up.
Update: And there’s California, and there’s the election.