Another horrifying SUSA state poll that oversamples Dems (50/39), another lead so wide that even a correctly weighted sample probably still equals a double-digit advantage for The One. Quinnipiac also had him by 15 last week and something called Morning Call Tracking has him up 10. The RCP spread: 11 points, four more than the current margin in Michigan, where Maverick’s already abandoned ship.
The most alarming number:
Obama today leads among PA men and women, young and old, rich and poor, more educated and less educated. McCain leads among Republicans, conservatives, pro-life voters, and gun owners. 21% of Republicans cross over to vote for Obama; 16% of Democrats cross over to vote for McCain. Independents break 2:1 for Obama.
The CBS poll last night had McCain marginally ahead among indies nationally so maybe this is an outlier, but I’m not sure what to make of the idea that Obama’s suddenly pulling more Republicans than McCain is Democrats. It’s been the opposite all year thanks to the PUMAs. But if that number’s an outlier too, why were there also more Obamicans than McCainocrats in the Virginia and New Hampshire polls from yestrerday? Given that Rasmussen has The One by eight and Gallup by nine, it’s probably CBS that’s the outlier, not SUSA.
Exit question: What would qualify as a gamechanger tonight? Gingrich and Rich Lowry agree that the only way out lies through a compelling economic message, but the economy’s always been a subplot to Maverick’s campaign. To remake his whole candidacy as an economic warrior a month out from election day would feel like a, er, stunt, but what choice does he have?